How do you know when a stock will go up or down? (Dow Jones Shanghai Index Stock Forecast)

Abstract

We evaluate Dow Jones Shanghai Index prediction models with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Pearson Correlation^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the Dow Jones Shanghai Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold Dow Jones Shanghai Index stock.

Keywords: Dow Jones Shanghai Index, Dow Jones Shanghai Index, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. Is it better to buy and sell or hold?
2. How do predictive algorithms actually work?
3. What is the use of Markov decision process?

Dow Jones Shanghai Index Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Dow Jones Shanghai Index Stock Decision Process with Pearson Correlation where A is the set of discrete actions of Dow Jones Shanghai Index stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Pearson Correlation)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(s_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of Dow Jones Shanghai Index stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

Dow Jones Shanghai Index Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: Dow Jones Shanghai Index Dow Jones Shanghai Index
Time series to forecast n: 03 Sep 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold Dow Jones Shanghai Index stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

Dow Jones Shanghai Index assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) with Pearson Correlation^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the Dow Jones Shanghai Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold Dow Jones Shanghai Index stock.

Financial State Forecast for Dow Jones Shanghai Index Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B1	B1
Operational Risk	65	75
Market Risk	81	68
Technical Analysis	32	49
Fundamental Analysis	67	35
Risk Unsystematic	60	66

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 72 out of 100 with 628 signals.

References

1. Mullainathan S, Spiess J. 2017. Machine learning: an applied econometric approach. J. Econ. Perspect. 31:87–106
2. N. B ̈auerle and A. Mundt. Dynamic mean-risk optimization in a binomial model. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 70(2):219–239, 2009.
3. Li L, Chu W, Langford J, Moon T, Wang X. 2012. An unbiased offline evaluation of contextual bandit algo- rithms with generalized linear models. In Proceedings of 4th ACM International Conference on Web Search and Data Mining, pp. 297–306. New York: ACM
4. Bewley, R. M. Yang (1998), "On the size and power of system tests for cointegration," Review of Economics and Statistics, 80, 675–679.
5. Chernozhukov V, Newey W, Robins J. 2018c. Double/de-biased machine learning using regularized Riesz representers. arXiv:1802.08667 [stat.ML]
6. Efron B, Hastie T. 2016. Computer Age Statistical Inference, Vol. 5. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
7. Breiman L. 1993. Better subset selection using the non-negative garotte. Tech. Rep., Univ. Calif., Berkeley

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for Dow Jones Shanghai Index stock?
A: Dow Jones Shanghai Index stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Pearson Correlation
Q: Is Dow Jones Shanghai Index stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold Dow Jones Shanghai Index Stock.
Q: Is Dow Jones Shanghai Index stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Dow Jones Shanghai Index is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of Dow Jones Shanghai Index stock?
A: The consensus rating for Dow Jones Shanghai Index is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for Dow Jones Shanghai Index stock?
A: The prediction period for Dow Jones Shanghai Index is (n+8 weeks)