Is AXP stock expected to rise?

Abstract

We evaluate American Express prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Lasso Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the AXP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AXP stock.

Keywords: AXP, American Express, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. What is prediction model?
2. Decision Making
3. Technical Analysis with Algorithmic Trading

AXP Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider American Express Stock Decision Process with Lasso Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of AXP stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Lasso Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(r_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of AXP stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

AXP Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: AXP American Express
Time series to forecast n: 01 Sep 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AXP stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

American Express assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) with Lasso Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the AXP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AXP stock.

Financial State Forecast for AXP Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B1	B1
Operational Risk	62	47
Market Risk	53	54
Technical Analysis	73	79
Fundamental Analysis	82	67
Risk Unsystematic	42	45

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 73 out of 100 with 763 signals.

References

1. Mnih A, Hinton GE. 2007. Three new graphical models for statistical language modelling. In International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 641–48. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
2. Breiman L. 1993. Better subset selection using the non-negative garotte. Tech. Rep., Univ. Calif., Berkeley
3. Breiman L. 2001b. Statistical modeling: the two cultures (with comments and a rejoinder by the author). Stat. Sci. 16:199–231
4. E. Collins. Using Markov decision processes to optimize a nonlinear functional of the final distribution, with manufacturing applications. In Stochastic Modelling in Innovative Manufacturing, pages 30–45. Springer, 1997
5. J. Harb and D. Precup. Investigating recurrence and eligibility traces in deep Q-networks. In Deep Reinforcement Learning Workshop, NIPS 2016, Barcelona, Spain, 2016.
6. Y. Le Tallec. Robust, risk-sensitive, and data-driven control of Markov decision processes. PhD thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2007.
7. Athey S, Blei D, Donnelly R, Ruiz F. 2017b. Counterfactual inference for consumer choice across many prod- uct categories. AEA Pap. Proc. 108:64–67

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for AXP stock?
A: AXP stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Lasso Regression
Q: Is AXP stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AXP Stock.
Q: Is American Express stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for American Express is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of AXP stock?
A: The consensus rating for AXP is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for AXP stock?
A: The prediction period for AXP is (n+6 month)

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