## Abstract

**We evaluate Dow Jones Industrial Average Index prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Chi-Square ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. **

**According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock.**

**Dow Jones Industrial Average Index, Dow Jones Industrial Average Index, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.**

*Keywords:*## Key Points

- Reaction Function
- What are main components of Markov decision process?
- Why do we need predictive models?

## Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Stock Decision Process with Chi-Square where A is the set of discrete actions of Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^{1,2,3,4}

F(Chi-Square)

^{5,6,7}= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& {p}_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) $\sum _{i=1}^{n}\left({r}_{i}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

**Sample Set:**Neural Network

**Stock/Index:**Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

**Time series to forecast n: 02 Sep 2022**for (n+8 weeks)

**According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock.**

**X axis: *Likelihood%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

**Y axis: *Potential Impact%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

**Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%**

## Conclusions

Dow Jones Industrial Average Index assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.** We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) with Chi-Square ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock is predictable in the short/long term.**

**According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock.**

### Financial State Forecast for Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Stock Options & Futures

Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
---|---|---|

Outlook* | B2 | Ba3 |

Operational Risk | 38 | 87 |

Market Risk | 40 | 52 |

Technical Analysis | 85 | 40 |

Fundamental Analysis | 50 | 58 |

Risk Unsystematic | 66 | 72 |

### Prediction Confidence Score

## References

- Cortes C, Vapnik V. 1995. Support-vector networks. Mach. Learn. 20:273–97
- Athey S, Imbens G, Wager S. 2016a. Efficient inference of average treatment effects in high dimensions via approximate residual balancing. arXiv:1604.07125 [math.ST]
- Bickel P, Klaassen C, Ritov Y, Wellner J. 1998. Efficient and Adaptive Estimation for Semiparametric Models. Berlin: Springer
- Hirano K, Porter JR. 2009. Asymptotics for statistical treatment rules. Econometrica 77:1683–701
- Dudik M, Erhan D, Langford J, Li L. 2014. Doubly robust policy evaluation and optimization. Stat. Sci. 29:485–511
- Kitagawa T, Tetenov A. 2015. Who should be treated? Empirical welfare maximization methods for treatment choice. Tech. Rep., Cent. Microdata Methods Pract., Inst. Fiscal Stud., London
- Mnih A, Teh YW. 2012. A fast and simple algorithm for training neural probabilistic language models. In Proceedings of the 29th International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 419–26. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.

## Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock?A: Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Chi-Square

Q: Is Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock a buy or sell?

A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Stock.

Q: Is Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock a good investment?

A: The consensus rating for Dow Jones Industrial Average Index is Buy and assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.

Q: What is the consensus rating of Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock?

A: The consensus rating for Dow Jones Industrial Average Index is Buy.

Q: What is the prediction period for Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock?

A: The prediction period for Dow Jones Industrial Average Index is (n+8 weeks)