Trading Signals (Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Stock Forecast)


Abstract

We evaluate Dow Jones Industrial Average Index prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Chi-Square1,2,3,4 and conclude that the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock.


Keywords: Dow Jones Industrial Average Index, Dow Jones Industrial Average Index, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Reaction Function
  2. What are main components of Markov decision process?
  3. Why do we need predictive models?

Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Stock Decision Process with Chi-Square where A is the set of discrete actions of Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Chi-Square)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) i = 1 n r i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

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Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Time series to forecast n: 02 Sep 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

Dow Jones Industrial Average Index assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) with Chi-Square1,2,3,4 and conclude that the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock.

Financial State Forecast for Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2Ba3
Operational Risk 3887
Market Risk4052
Technical Analysis8540
Fundamental Analysis5058
Risk Unsystematic6672

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 88 out of 100 with 546 signals.

References

  1. Cortes C, Vapnik V. 1995. Support-vector networks. Mach. Learn. 20:273–97
  2. Athey S, Imbens G, Wager S. 2016a. Efficient inference of average treatment effects in high dimensions via approximate residual balancing. arXiv:1604.07125 [math.ST]
  3. Bickel P, Klaassen C, Ritov Y, Wellner J. 1998. Efficient and Adaptive Estimation for Semiparametric Models. Berlin: Springer
  4. Hirano K, Porter JR. 2009. Asymptotics for statistical treatment rules. Econometrica 77:1683–701
  5. Dudik M, Erhan D, Langford J, Li L. 2014. Doubly robust policy evaluation and optimization. Stat. Sci. 29:485–511
  6. Kitagawa T, Tetenov A. 2015. Who should be treated? Empirical welfare maximization methods for treatment choice. Tech. Rep., Cent. Microdata Methods Pract., Inst. Fiscal Stud., London
  7. Mnih A, Teh YW. 2012. A fast and simple algorithm for training neural probabilistic language models. In Proceedings of the 29th International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 419–26. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock?
A: Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Chi-Square
Q: Is Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Stock.
Q: Is Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Dow Jones Industrial Average Index is Buy and assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock?
A: The consensus rating for Dow Jones Industrial Average Index is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock?
A: The prediction period for Dow Jones Industrial Average Index is (n+8 weeks)

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