What are the most successful trading algorithms? (ATVI Stock Forecast)


Abstract

We evaluate Activision Blizzard prediction models with Transductive Learning (ML) and Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ATVI stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ATVI stock.


Keywords: ATVI, Activision Blizzard, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Reaction Function
  2. Can stock prices be predicted?
  3. What is prediction model?

ATVI Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Activision Blizzard Stock Decision Process with Lasso Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of ATVI stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Lasso Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Transductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) R = r 1 r 2 r 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ATVI stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

ATVI Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: ATVI Activision Blizzard
Time series to forecast n: 04 Sep 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ATVI stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

Activision Blizzard assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Transductive Learning (ML) with Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ATVI stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ATVI stock.

Financial State Forecast for ATVI Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B2
Operational Risk 7441
Market Risk5858
Technical Analysis4650
Fundamental Analysis5473
Risk Unsystematic7549

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 75 out of 100 with 706 signals.

References

  1. R. Howard and J. Matheson. Risk sensitive Markov decision processes. Management Science, 18(7):356– 369, 1972
  2. Bottou L. 1998. Online learning and stochastic approximations. In On-Line Learning in Neural Networks, ed. D Saad, pp. 9–42. New York: ACM
  3. M. Babes, E. M. de Cote, and M. L. Littman. Social reward shaping in the prisoner's dilemma. In 7th International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems (AAMAS 2008), Estoril, Portugal, May 12-16, 2008, Volume 3, pages 1389–1392, 2008.
  4. C. Szepesvári. Algorithms for Reinforcement Learning. Synthesis Lectures on Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning. Morgan & Claypool Publishers, 2010
  5. Mnih A, Kavukcuoglu K. 2013. Learning word embeddings efficiently with noise-contrastive estimation. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 26, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 2265–73. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
  6. Y. Le Tallec. Robust, risk-sensitive, and data-driven control of Markov decision processes. PhD thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2007.
  7. D. White. Mean, variance, and probabilistic criteria in finite Markov decision processes: A review. Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 56(1):1–29, 1988.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for ATVI stock?
A: ATVI stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Transductive Learning (ML) and Lasso Regression
Q: Is ATVI stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ATVI Stock.
Q: Is Activision Blizzard stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Activision Blizzard is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ATVI stock?
A: The consensus rating for ATVI is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for ATVI stock?
A: The prediction period for ATVI is (n+1 year)

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