When should you buy or sell a stock? (SMG Stock Forecast)

Abstract

We evaluate Scotts Miracle-Gro Company prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Chi-Square^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the SMG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold SMG stock.

Keywords: SMG, Scotts Miracle-Gro Company, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. Investment Risk
2. What is a prediction confidence?
3. Should I buy stocks now or wait amid such uncertainty?

SMG Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Scotts Miracle-Gro Company Stock Decision Process with Chi-Square where A is the set of discrete actions of SMG stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Chi-Square)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) $\overrightarrow{S}=\left(s_1,s_2,s_3\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of SMG stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

SMG Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: SMG Scotts Miracle-Gro Company
Time series to forecast n: 04 Sep 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold SMG stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

Scotts Miracle-Gro Company assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) with Chi-Square^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the SMG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold SMG stock.

Financial State Forecast for SMG Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B1	Ba3
Operational Risk	39	76
Market Risk	58	40
Technical Analysis	74	42
Fundamental Analysis	54	72
Risk Unsystematic	70	89

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 74 out of 100 with 744 signals.

References

1. Burkov A. 2019. The Hundred-Page Machine Learning Book. Quebec City, Can.: Andriy Burkov
2. Abadie A, Diamond A, Hainmueller J. 2010. Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies: estimat- ing the effect of California's tobacco control program. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 105:493–505
3. Bai J, Ng S. 2002. Determining the number of factors in approximate factor models. Econometrica 70:191–221
4. Imbens GW, Rubin DB. 2015. Causal Inference in Statistics, Social, and Biomedical Sciences. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
5. J. N. Foerster, Y. M. Assael, N. de Freitas, and S. Whiteson. Learning to communicate with deep multi-agent reinforcement learning. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 29: Annual Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems 2016, December 5-10, 2016, Barcelona, Spain, pages 2137–2145, 2016.
6. Mazumder R, Hastie T, Tibshirani R. 2010. Spectral regularization algorithms for learning large incomplete matrices. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 11:2287–322
7. T. Shardlow and A. Stuart. A perturbation theory for ergodic Markov chains and application to numerical approximations. SIAM journal on numerical analysis, 37(4):1120–1137, 2000

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for SMG stock?
A: SMG stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Chi-Square
Q: Is SMG stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold SMG Stock.
Q: Is Scotts Miracle-Gro Company stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Scotts Miracle-Gro Company is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of SMG stock?
A: The consensus rating for SMG is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for SMG stock?
A: The prediction period for SMG is (n+1 year)

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