Can stock prices be predicted? (Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Stock Forecast)

Stock market investment strategies are complex and rely on an evaluation of vast amounts of data. In recent years, machine learning techniques have increasingly been examined to assess whether they can improve market forecasting when compared with traditional approaches. The objective for this study is to identify directions for future machine learning stock market prediction research based upon a review of current literature. We evaluate Dow Jones Industrial Average Index prediction models with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Factor^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock.

Keywords: Dow Jones Industrial Average Index, Dow Jones Industrial Average Index, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. Buy, Sell and Hold Signals
2. Reaction Function
3. What statistical methods are used to analyze data?

Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Predicting stock market prices is crucial subject at the present economy. Hence, the tendency of researchers towards new opportunities to predict the stock market has been increased. Researchers have found that, historical stock data and Search Engine Queries, social mood from user generated content in sources like Twitter, Web News has a predictive relationship to the future stock prices. Lack of information such as social mood was there in past studies and in this research, we discuss an effective method to analyze multiple information sources to fill the information gap and predict an accurate future value. We consider Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Stock Decision Process with Factor where A is the set of discrete actions of Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Factor)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) $\overrightarrow{S}=\left(s_1,s_2,s_3\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
Time series to forecast n: 22 Oct 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

Dow Jones Industrial Average Index assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) with Factor^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock.

Financial State Forecast for Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B1	Ba2
Operational Risk	80	62
Market Risk	47	75
Technical Analysis	43	77
Fundamental Analysis	78	65
Risk Unsystematic	54	62

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 91 out of 100 with 836 signals.

References

1. Pennington J, Socher R, Manning CD. 2014. GloVe: global vectors for word representation. In Proceedings of the 2014 Conference on Empirical Methods on Natural Language Processing, pp. 1532–43. New York: Assoc. Comput. Linguist.
2. Brailsford, T.J. R.W. Faff (1996), "An evaluation of volatility forecasting techniques," Journal of Banking Finance, 20, 419–438.
3. G. J. Laurent, L. Matignon, and N. L. Fort-Piat. The world of independent learners is not Markovian. Int. J. Know.-Based Intell. Eng. Syst., 15(1):55–64, 2011
4. V. Borkar. A sensitivity formula for the risk-sensitive cost and the actor-critic algorithm. Systems & Control Letters, 44:339–346, 2001
5. Mikolov T, Chen K, Corrado GS, Dean J. 2013a. Efficient estimation of word representations in vector space. arXiv:1301.3781 [cs.CL]
6. Bickel P, Klaassen C, Ritov Y, Wellner J. 1998. Efficient and Adaptive Estimation for Semiparametric Models. Berlin: Springer
7. Abadir, K. M., K. Hadri E. Tzavalis (1999), "The influence of VAR dimensions on estimator biases," Econometrica, 67, 163–181.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock?
A: Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Factor
Q: Is Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Stock.
Q: Is Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Dow Jones Industrial Average Index is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock?
A: The consensus rating for Dow Jones Industrial Average Index is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for Dow Jones Industrial Average Index stock?
A: The prediction period for Dow Jones Industrial Average Index is (n+16 weeks)

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