How do you know when a stock will go up or down? (FBHS Stock Forecast)

Stock market is basically nonlinear in nature and the research on stock market is one of the most important issues in recent years. People invest in stock market based on some prediction. For predict, the stock market prices people search such methods and tools which will increase their profits, while minimize their risks. Prediction plays a very important role in stock market business which is very complicated and challenging process. We evaluate Fortune Brands Home & Security prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Spearman Correlation^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the FBHS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold FBHS stock.

Keywords: FBHS, Fortune Brands Home & Security, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. Stock Rating
2. How useful are statistical predictions?
3. How accurate is machine learning in stock market?

FBHS Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

In this paper we investigate ways to use prior knowledge and neural networks to improve multivariate prediction ability. Daily stock prices are predicted as a complicated real-world problem, taking non-numerical factors such as political and international events are into account. We have studied types of prior knowledge which are difficult to insert into initial network structures or to represent in the form of error measurements. We consider Fortune Brands Home & Security Stock Decision Process with Spearman Correlation where A is the set of discrete actions of FBHS stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Spearman Correlation)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(r_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of FBHS stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

FBHS Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: FBHS Fortune Brands Home & Security
Time series to forecast n: 22 Oct 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold FBHS stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

Fortune Brands Home & Security assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) with Spearman Correlation^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the FBHS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold FBHS stock.

Financial State Forecast for FBHS Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba3	Ba2
Operational Risk	80	84
Market Risk	35	67
Technical Analysis	80	33
Fundamental Analysis	63	68
Risk Unsystematic	65	86

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 72 out of 100 with 705 signals.

References

1. S. Bhatnagar, H. Prasad, and L. Prashanth. Stochastic recursive algorithms for optimization, volume 434. Springer, 2013
2. Breusch, T. S. A. R. Pagan (1979), "A simple test for heteroskedasticity and random coefficient variation," Econometrica, 47, 1287–1294.
3. G. Shani, R. Brafman, and D. Heckerman. An MDP-based recommender system. In Proceedings of the Eigh- teenth conference on Uncertainty in artificial intelligence, pages 453–460. Morgan Kaufmann Publishers Inc., 2002
4. Challen, D. W. A. J. Hagger (1983), Macroeconomic Systems: Construction, Validation and Applications. New York: St. Martin's Press.
5. S. Bhatnagar, H. Prasad, and L. Prashanth. Stochastic recursive algorithms for optimization, volume 434. Springer, 2013
6. R. Rockafellar and S. Uryasev. Optimization of conditional value-at-risk. Journal of Risk, 2:21–42, 2000.
7. Athey S. 2017. Beyond prediction: using big data for policy problems. Science 355:483–85

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for FBHS stock?
A: FBHS stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Spearman Correlation
Q: Is FBHS stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold FBHS Stock.
Q: Is Fortune Brands Home & Security stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Fortune Brands Home & Security is Hold and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of FBHS stock?
A: The consensus rating for FBHS is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for FBHS stock?
A: The prediction period for FBHS is (n+4 weeks)

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