Modelling A.I. in Economics

Can stock prices be predicted? (LON:HLCL Stock Forecast) (Forecast)

This paper studies the possibilities of making prediction of stock market prices using historical data and machine learning algorithms. We evaluate HELICAL PLC prediction models with Active Learning (ML) and Factor1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:HLCL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:HLCL stock.


Keywords: LON:HLCL, HELICAL PLC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. What is Markov decision process in reinforcement learning?
  2. Operational Risk
  3. Can statistics predict the future?

LON:HLCL Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Stock index price prediction is prevalent in both academic and economic fields. The index price is hard to forecast due to its uncertain noise. With the development of computer science, neural networks are applied in kinds of industrial fields. In this paper, we introduce four different methods in machine learning including three typical machine learning models: Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and one attention-based neural network. We consider HELICAL PLC Stock Decision Process with Factor where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:HLCL stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Factor)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Active Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:HLCL stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:HLCL Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:HLCL HELICAL PLC
Time series to forecast n: 05 Oct 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:HLCL stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

HELICAL PLC assigned short-term B2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Active Learning (ML) with Factor1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:HLCL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:HLCL stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:HLCL Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2B2
Operational Risk 4231
Market Risk6446
Technical Analysis3647
Fundamental Analysis8564
Risk Unsystematic4462

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 75 out of 100 with 461 signals.

References

  1. Bewley, R. M. Yang (1998), "On the size and power of system tests for cointegration," Review of Economics and Statistics, 80, 675–679.
  2. M. Colby, T. Duchow-Pressley, J. J. Chung, and K. Tumer. Local approximation of difference evaluation functions. In Proceedings of the Fifteenth International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, Singapore, May 2016
  3. Van der Vaart AW. 2000. Asymptotic Statistics. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
  4. Bastani H, Bayati M. 2015. Online decision-making with high-dimensional covariates. Work. Pap., Univ. Penn./ Stanford Grad. School Bus., Philadelphia/Stanford, CA
  5. Cheung, Y. M.D. Chinn (1997), "Further investigation of the uncertain unit root in GNP," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 15, 68–73.
  6. Athey S, Bayati M, Doudchenko N, Imbens G, Khosravi K. 2017a. Matrix completion methods for causal panel data models. arXiv:1710.10251 [math.ST]
  7. A. Shapiro, W. Tekaya, J. da Costa, and M. Soares. Risk neutral and risk averse stochastic dual dynamic programming method. European journal of operational research, 224(2):375–391, 2013
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:HLCL stock?
A: LON:HLCL stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Active Learning (ML) and Factor
Q: Is LON:HLCL stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:HLCL Stock.
Q: Is HELICAL PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for HELICAL PLC is Sell and assigned short-term B2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:HLCL stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:HLCL is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:HLCL stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:HLCL is (n+4 weeks)

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