Modelling A.I. in Economics

Does algo trading work? (NSE GUJGASLTD Stock Forecast)

Machine Learning refers to a concept in which a machine has been programmed to learn specific patterns from historical data using powerful algorithms and make predictions in future based on the patterns it learnt. Machine learning is a branch of Artificial Intelligence (AI), the term proposed in 1959 by Arthur Samuel who defined it as the ability of computers or machines to learn new rules and concepts from data without being explicitly programmed. We evaluate Gujarat Gas Limited prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Sign Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NSE GUJGASLTD stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NSE GUJGASLTD stock.


Keywords: NSE GUJGASLTD, Gujarat Gas Limited, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Prediction Modeling
  2. Market Risk
  3. Dominated Move

NSE GUJGASLTD Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Accurate prediction of stock price movements is highly challenging and significant topic for investors. Investors need to understand that stock price data is the most essential information which is highly volatile, non-linear, and non-parametric and are affected by many uncertainties and interrelated economic and political factors across the globe. Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) have been found to be an efficient tool in modeling stock prices and quite a large number of studies have been done on it. We consider Gujarat Gas Limited Stock Decision Process with Sign Test where A is the set of discrete actions of NSE GUJGASLTD stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Sign Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of NSE GUJGASLTD stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

NSE GUJGASLTD Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: NSE GUJGASLTD Gujarat Gas Limited
Time series to forecast n: 03 Oct 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NSE GUJGASLTD stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

Gujarat Gas Limited assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) with Sign Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NSE GUJGASLTD stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NSE GUJGASLTD stock.

Financial State Forecast for NSE GUJGASLTD Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1Ba3
Operational Risk 6287
Market Risk3653
Technical Analysis8036
Fundamental Analysis7171
Risk Unsystematic4168

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 73 out of 100 with 855 signals.

References

  1. Jiang N, Li L. 2016. Doubly robust off-policy value evaluation for reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the 33rd International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 652–61. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
  2. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Tibshirani RJ. 2017. Extended comparisons of best subset selection, forward stepwise selection, and the lasso. arXiv:1707.08692 [stat.ME]
  3. C. Claus and C. Boutilier. The dynamics of reinforcement learning in cooperative multiagent systems. In Proceedings of the Fifteenth National Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Tenth Innovative Applications of Artificial Intelligence Conference, AAAI 98, IAAI 98, July 26-30, 1998, Madison, Wisconsin, USA., pages 746–752, 1998.
  4. D. Bertsekas. Min common/max crossing duality: A geometric view of conjugacy in convex optimization. Lab. for Information and Decision Systems, MIT, Tech. Rep. Report LIDS-P-2796, 2009
  5. Abadie A, Diamond A, Hainmueller J. 2010. Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies: estimat- ing the effect of California's tobacco control program. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 105:493–505
  6. Dietterich TG. 2000. Ensemble methods in machine learning. In Multiple Classifier Systems: First International Workshop, Cagliari, Italy, June 21–23, pp. 1–15. Berlin: Springer
  7. Dimakopoulou M, Athey S, Imbens G. 2017. Estimation considerations in contextual bandits. arXiv:1711.07077 [stat.ML]
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for NSE GUJGASLTD stock?
A: NSE GUJGASLTD stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Sign Test
Q: Is NSE GUJGASLTD stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NSE GUJGASLTD Stock.
Q: Is Gujarat Gas Limited stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Gujarat Gas Limited is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of NSE GUJGASLTD stock?
A: The consensus rating for NSE GUJGASLTD is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for NSE GUJGASLTD stock?
A: The prediction period for NSE GUJGASLTD is (n+1 year)

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