Modelling A.I. in Economics

Ecolab Stock Forecast, Price & Rating (ECL) (Forecast)

The search for models to predict the prices of financial markets is still a highly researched topic, despite major related challenges. The prices of financial assets are non-linear, dynamic, and chaotic; thus, they are financial time series that are difficult to predict. Among the latest techniques, machine learning models are some of the most researched, given their capabilities for recognizing complex patterns in various applications. We evaluate Ecolab prediction models with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Beta1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ECL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ECL stock.


Keywords: ECL, Ecolab, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Technical Analysis with Algorithmic Trading
  2. How can neural networks improve predictions?
  3. How do you pick a stock?

ECL Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Stock market prediction is the act of trying to determine the future value of a company stock or other financial instrument traded on an exchange. The successful prediction of a stock's future price could yield significant profit. This paper will showcase how to perform stock prediction using Machine Learning algorithms. We consider Ecolab Stock Decision Process with Beta where A is the set of discrete actions of ECL stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Beta)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Multi-Instance Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) R = 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ECL stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

ECL Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: ECL Ecolab
Time series to forecast n: 06 Oct 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ECL stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

Ecolab assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Instance Learning (ML) with Beta1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ECL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ECL stock.

Financial State Forecast for ECL Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Baa2B1
Operational Risk 8951
Market Risk8062
Technical Analysis6751
Fundamental Analysis4967
Risk Unsystematic8368

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 76 out of 100 with 505 signals.

References

  1. Vapnik V. 2013. The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory. Berlin: Springer
  2. A. Y. Ng, D. Harada, and S. J. Russell. Policy invariance under reward transformations: Theory and application to reward shaping. In Proceedings of the Sixteenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 1999), Bled, Slovenia, June 27 - 30, 1999, pages 278–287, 1999.
  3. D. S. Bernstein, S. Zilberstein, and N. Immerman. The complexity of decentralized control of Markov Decision Processes. In UAI '00: Proceedings of the 16th Conference in Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA, June 30 - July 3, 2000, pages 32–37, 2000.
  4. Byron, R. P. O. Ashenfelter (1995), "Predicting the quality of an unborn grange," Economic Record, 71, 40–53.
  5. Friedman JH. 2002. Stochastic gradient boosting. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 38:367–78
  6. Abadie A, Diamond A, Hainmueller J. 2015. Comparative politics and the synthetic control method. Am. J. Political Sci. 59:495–510
  7. Dudik M, Erhan D, Langford J, Li L. 2014. Doubly robust policy evaluation and optimization. Stat. Sci. 29:485–511
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for ECL stock?
A: ECL stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Beta
Q: Is ECL stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ECL Stock.
Q: Is Ecolab stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Ecolab is Hold and assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ECL stock?
A: The consensus rating for ECL is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for ECL stock?
A: The prediction period for ECL is (n+16 weeks)

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