Modelling A.I. in Economics

How do you determine buy or sell? (EMN Stock Forecast)

The stock market prediction has attracted much attention from academia as well as business. Due to the non-linear, volatile and complex nature of the market, it is quite difficult to predict. As the stock markets grow bigger, more investors pay attention to develop a systematic approach to predict the stock market. We evaluate Eastman Chemical Company prediction models with Transductive Learning (ML) and Spearman Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the EMN stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy EMN stock.


Keywords: EMN, Eastman Chemical Company, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. What is prediction model?
  2. Market Risk
  3. Is it better to buy and sell or hold?

EMN Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

The search for models to predict the prices of financial markets is still a highly researched topic, despite major related challenges. The prices of financial assets are non-linear, dynamic, and chaotic; thus, they are financial time series that are difficult to predict. Among the latest techniques, machine learning models are some of the most researched, given their capabilities for recognizing complex patterns in various applications. We consider Eastman Chemical Company Stock Decision Process with Spearman Correlation where A is the set of discrete actions of EMN stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Spearman Correlation)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Transductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) i = 1 n r i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of EMN stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

EMN Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: EMN Eastman Chemical Company
Time series to forecast n: 03 Oct 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy EMN stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

Eastman Chemical Company assigned short-term B3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Transductive Learning (ML) with Spearman Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the EMN stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy EMN stock.

Financial State Forecast for EMN Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B3B1
Operational Risk 3238
Market Risk6136
Technical Analysis6985
Fundamental Analysis5339
Risk Unsystematic3887

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 88 out of 100 with 513 signals.

References

  1. Dudik M, Erhan D, Langford J, Li L. 2014. Doubly robust policy evaluation and optimization. Stat. Sci. 29:485–511
  2. Bengio Y, Schwenk H, Senécal JS, Morin F, Gauvain JL. 2006. Neural probabilistic language models. In Innovations in Machine Learning: Theory and Applications, ed. DE Holmes, pp. 137–86. Berlin: Springer
  3. A. Shapiro, W. Tekaya, J. da Costa, and M. Soares. Risk neutral and risk averse stochastic dual dynamic programming method. European journal of operational research, 224(2):375–391, 2013
  4. Bamler R, Mandt S. 2017. Dynamic word embeddings via skip-gram filtering. In Proceedings of the 34th Inter- national Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 380–89. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
  5. Christou, C., P. A. V. B. Swamy G. S. Tavlas (1996), "Modelling optimal strategies for the allocation of wealth in multicurrency investments," International Journal of Forecasting, 12, 483–493.
  6. Hornik K, Stinchcombe M, White H. 1989. Multilayer feedforward networks are universal approximators. Neural Netw. 2:359–66
  7. Burgess, D. F. (1975), "Duality theory and pitfalls in the specification of technologies," Journal of Econometrics, 3, 105–121.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for EMN stock?
A: EMN stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Transductive Learning (ML) and Spearman Correlation
Q: Is EMN stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy EMN Stock.
Q: Is Eastman Chemical Company stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Eastman Chemical Company is Buy and assigned short-term B3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of EMN stock?
A: The consensus rating for EMN is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for EMN stock?
A: The prediction period for EMN is (n+8 weeks)

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