How do you determine buy or sell? (FSV Stock Forecast)

In this paper, we introduce a new prediction model depend on Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit (BGRU). Our predictive model relies on both online financial news and historical stock prices data to predict the stock movements in the future. We evaluate FirstService Corporation prediction models with Transfer Learning (ML) and Spearman Correlation^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the FSV stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy FSV stock.

Keywords: FSV, FirstService Corporation, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. Is it better to buy and sell or hold?
2. How accurate is machine learning in stock market?
3. Stock Rating

FSV Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Stock index price prediction is prevalent in both academic and economic fields. The index price is hard to forecast due to its uncertain noise. With the development of computer science, neural networks are applied in kinds of industrial fields. In this paper, we introduce four different methods in machine learning including three typical machine learning models: Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and one attention-based neural network. We consider FirstService Corporation Stock Decision Process with Spearman Correlation where A is the set of discrete actions of FSV stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Spearman Correlation)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Transfer Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(r_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of FSV stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

FSV Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: FSV FirstService Corporation
Time series to forecast n: 03 Oct 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy FSV stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

FirstService Corporation assigned short-term B3 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Transfer Learning (ML) with Spearman Correlation^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the FSV stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy FSV stock.

Financial State Forecast for FSV Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B3	B2
Operational Risk	65	60
Market Risk	35	48
Technical Analysis	49	36
Fundamental Analysis	48	62
Risk Unsystematic	57	45

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 92 out of 100 with 557 signals.

References

1. D. Bertsekas. Dynamic programming and optimal control. Athena Scientific, 1995.
2. Nie X, Wager S. 2019. Quasi-oracle estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects. arXiv:1712.04912 [stat.ML]
3. J. Filar, L. Kallenberg, and H. Lee. Variance-penalized Markov decision processes. Mathematics of Opera- tions Research, 14(1):147–161, 1989
4. Künzel S, Sekhon J, Bickel P, Yu B. 2017. Meta-learners for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects using machine learning. arXiv:1706.03461 [math.ST]
5. Farrell MH, Liang T, Misra S. 2018. Deep neural networks for estimation and inference: application to causal effects and other semiparametric estimands. arXiv:1809.09953 [econ.EM]
6. G. Theocharous and A. Hallak. Lifetime value marketing using reinforcement learning. RLDM 2013, page 19, 2013
7. Angrist JD, Pischke JS. 2008. Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion. Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for FSV stock?
A: FSV stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Transfer Learning (ML) and Spearman Correlation
Q: Is FSV stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy FSV Stock.
Q: Is FirstService Corporation stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for FirstService Corporation is Buy and assigned short-term B3 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of FSV stock?
A: The consensus rating for FSV is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for FSV stock?
A: The prediction period for FSV is (n+8 weeks)

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