Modelling A.I. in Economics

Is LON:BVA Stock Expected to Go Up? (Stock Forecast) (Forecast)

The prediction of stock price performance is a difficult and complex problem. Multivariate analytical techniques using both quantitative and qualitative variables have repeatedly been used to help form the basis of investor stock price expectations and, hence, influence investment decision making. However, the performance of multivariate analytical techniques is often less than conclusive and needs to be improved to more accurately forecast stock price performance. A neural network method has demonstrated its capability of addressing complex problems. We evaluate BANCO BILBAO VIZCAYA ARGENTARIA S.A. prediction models with Transfer Learning (ML) and Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:BVA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:BVA stock.


Keywords: LON:BVA, BANCO BILBAO VIZCAYA ARGENTARIA S.A., stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Understanding Buy, Sell, and Hold Ratings
  2. Fundemental Analysis with Algorithmic Trading
  3. Trading Interaction

LON:BVA Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Machine Learning refers to a concept in which a machine has been programmed to learn specific patterns from historical data using powerful algorithms and make predictions in future based on the patterns it learnt. Machine learning is a branch of Artificial Intelligence (AI), the term proposed in 1959 by Arthur Samuel who defined it as the ability of computers or machines to learn new rules and concepts from data without being explicitly programmed. We consider BANCO BILBAO VIZCAYA ARGENTARIA S.A. Stock Decision Process with Lasso Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:BVA stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Lasso Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Transfer Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:BVA stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:BVA Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:BVA BANCO BILBAO VIZCAYA ARGENTARIA S.A.
Time series to forecast n: 05 Oct 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:BVA stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

BANCO BILBAO VIZCAYA ARGENTARIA S.A. assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Transfer Learning (ML) with Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:BVA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:BVA stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:BVA Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3Ba2
Operational Risk 6489
Market Risk7234
Technical Analysis8886
Fundamental Analysis5288
Risk Unsystematic4238

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 91 out of 100 with 789 signals.

References

  1. Mikolov T, Chen K, Corrado GS, Dean J. 2013a. Efficient estimation of word representations in vector space. arXiv:1301.3781 [cs.CL]
  2. Abadie A, Imbens GW. 2011. Bias-corrected matching estimators for average treatment effects. J. Bus. Econ. Stat. 29:1–11
  3. Barkan O. 2016. Bayesian neural word embedding. arXiv:1603.06571 [math.ST]
  4. Breiman L, Friedman J, Stone CJ, Olshen RA. 1984. Classification and Regression Trees. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press
  5. G. Konidaris, S. Osentoski, and P. Thomas. Value function approximation in reinforcement learning using the Fourier basis. In AAAI, 2011
  6. N. B ̈auerle and A. Mundt. Dynamic mean-risk optimization in a binomial model. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 70(2):219–239, 2009.
  7. Imbens GW, Rubin DB. 2015. Causal Inference in Statistics, Social, and Biomedical Sciences. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:BVA stock?
A: LON:BVA stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Transfer Learning (ML) and Lasso Regression
Q: Is LON:BVA stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:BVA Stock.
Q: Is BANCO BILBAO VIZCAYA ARGENTARIA S.A. stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for BANCO BILBAO VIZCAYA ARGENTARIA S.A. is Sell and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:BVA stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:BVA is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:BVA stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:BVA is (n+8 weeks)

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