Prediction of stock prices has been an important area of research for a long time. While supporters of the efficient market hypothesis believe that it is impossible to predict stock prices accurately, there are formal propositions demonstrating that accurate modeling and designing of appropriate variables may lead to models using which stock prices and stock price movement patterns can be very accurately predicted. We evaluate AES prediction models with Statistical Inference (ML) and ElasticNet Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the AES stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell AES stock.

Keywords: AES, AES, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

## Key Points

1. Should I buy stocks now or wait amid such uncertainty?
2. Market Signals
3. Can statistics predict the future?

## AES Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Stock market prediction is the act of trying to determine the future value of a company stock or other financial instrument traded on a financial exchange. The successful prediction of a stock's future price will maximize investor's gains. This paper proposes a machine learning model to predict stock market price. We consider AES Stock Decision Process with ElasticNet Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of AES stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(ElasticNet Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Statistical Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) $R=\left(\begin{array}{ccc}1& 0& 0\\ 0& 1& 0\\ 0& 0& 1\end{array}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of AES stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## AES Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: AES AES
Time series to forecast n: 05 Oct 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell AES stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Conclusions

AES assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) with ElasticNet Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the AES stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell AES stock.

### Financial State Forecast for AES Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B1
Operational Risk 8286
Market Risk4739
Technical Analysis4937
Fundamental Analysis8088
Risk Unsystematic5550

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 81 out of 100 with 538 signals.

## References

1. V. Borkar. An actor-critic algorithm for constrained Markov decision processes. Systems & Control Letters, 54(3):207–213, 2005.
2. M. Sobel. The variance of discounted Markov decision processes. Applied Probability, pages 794–802, 1982
3. R. Rockafellar and S. Uryasev. Conditional value-at-risk for general loss distributions. Journal of Banking and Finance, 26(7):1443 – 1471, 2002
4. Miller A. 2002. Subset Selection in Regression. New York: CRC Press
5. M. J. Hausknecht and P. Stone. Deep recurrent Q-learning for partially observable MDPs. CoRR, abs/1507.06527, 2015
6. R. Howard and J. Matheson. Risk sensitive Markov decision processes. Management Science, 18(7):356– 369, 1972
7. Chernozhukov V, Chetverikov D, Demirer M, Duflo E, Hansen C, et al. 2018a. Double/debiased machine learning for treatment and structural parameters. Econom. J. 21:C1–68
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for AES stock?
A: AES stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) and ElasticNet Regression
Q: Is AES stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell AES Stock.
Q: Is AES stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for AES is Sell and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of AES stock?
A: The consensus rating for AES is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for AES stock?
A: The prediction period for AES is (n+6 month)