Modelling A.I. in Economics

BIP.UN:TSX Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P.

Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P. Research Report

Summary

The success of portfolio construction depends primarily on the future performance of stock markets. Recent developments in machine learning have brought significant opportunities to incorporate prediction theory into portfolio selection. However, many studies show that a single prediction model is insufficient to achieve very accurate predictions and affluent returns. In this paper, a novel portfolio construction approach is developed using a hybrid model based on machine learning for stock prediction. We evaluate Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P. prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Beta1,2,3,4 and conclude that the BIP.UN:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell BIP.UN:TSX stock.

Key Points

  1. Market Outlook
  2. Probability Distribution
  3. What is prediction model?

BIP.UN:TSX Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P. Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of BIP.UN:TSX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Beta)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) i = 1 n a i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of BIP.UN:TSX stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

BIP.UN:TSX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: BIP.UN:TSX Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P.
Time series to forecast n: 28 Nov 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell BIP.UN:TSX stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P.

  1. In almost every lending transaction the creditor's instrument is ranked relative to the instruments of the debtor's other creditors. An instrument that is subordinated to other instruments may have contractual cash flows that are payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding if the debtor's non-payment is a breach of contract and the holder has a contractual right to unpaid amounts of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding even in the event of the debtor's bankruptcy. For example, a trade receivable that ranks its creditor as a general creditor would qualify as having payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding. This is the case even if the debtor issued loans that are collateralised, which in the event of bankruptcy would give that loan holder priority over the claims of the general creditor in respect of the collateral but does not affect the contractual right of the general creditor to unpaid principal and other amounts due.
  2. Subject to the conditions in paragraphs 4.1.5 and 4.2.2, this Standard allows an entity to designate a financial asset, a financial liability, or a group of financial instruments (financial assets, financial liabilities or both) as at fair value through profit or loss provided that doing so results in more relevant information.
  3. An entity shall apply this Standard for annual periods beginning on or after 1 January 2018. Earlier application is permitted. If an entity elects to apply this Standard early, it must disclose that fact and apply all of the requirements in this Standard at the same time (but see also paragraphs 7.1.2, 7.2.21 and 7.3.2). It shall also, at the same time, apply the amendments in Appendix C.
  4. A layer component that includes a prepayment option is not eligible to be designated as a hedged item in a fair value hedge if the prepayment option's fair value is affected by changes in the hedged risk, unless the designated layer includes the effect of the related prepayment option when determining the change in the fair value of the hedged item.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P. assigned short-term B3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) with Beta1,2,3,4 and conclude that the BIP.UN:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell BIP.UN:TSX stock.

Financial State Forecast for BIP.UN:TSX Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P. Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B3Ba3
Operational Risk 3277
Market Risk4064
Technical Analysis6675
Fundamental Analysis7856
Risk Unsystematic3842

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 93 out of 100 with 838 signals.

References

  1. Ruiz FJ, Athey S, Blei DM. 2017. SHOPPER: a probabilistic model of consumer choice with substitutes and complements. arXiv:1711.03560 [stat.ML]
  2. G. Shani, R. Brafman, and D. Heckerman. An MDP-based recommender system. In Proceedings of the Eigh- teenth conference on Uncertainty in artificial intelligence, pages 453–460. Morgan Kaufmann Publishers Inc., 2002
  3. M. Babes, E. M. de Cote, and M. L. Littman. Social reward shaping in the prisoner's dilemma. In 7th International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems (AAMAS 2008), Estoril, Portugal, May 12-16, 2008, Volume 3, pages 1389–1392, 2008.
  4. Zubizarreta JR. 2015. Stable weights that balance covariates for estimation with incomplete outcome data. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 110:910–22
  5. Bertsimas D, King A, Mazumder R. 2016. Best subset selection via a modern optimization lens. Ann. Stat. 44:813–52
  6. M. Colby, T. Duchow-Pressley, J. J. Chung, and K. Tumer. Local approximation of difference evaluation functions. In Proceedings of the Fifteenth International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, Singapore, May 2016
  7. Hirano K, Porter JR. 2009. Asymptotics for statistical treatment rules. Econometrica 77:1683–701
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for BIP.UN:TSX stock?
A: BIP.UN:TSX stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Beta
Q: Is BIP.UN:TSX stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell BIP.UN:TSX Stock.
Q: Is Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P. stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P. is Sell and assigned short-term B3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of BIP.UN:TSX stock?
A: The consensus rating for BIP.UN:TSX is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for BIP.UN:TSX stock?
A: The prediction period for BIP.UN:TSX is (n+3 month)



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