Buy, Sell, or Hold? (UGI Stock Forecast)

This paper aims to develop an innovative neural network approach to achieve better stock market predictions. Data were obtained from the live stock market for real-time and off-line analysis and results of visualizations and analytics to demonstrate Internet of Multimedia of Things for stock analysis. To study the influence of market characteristics on stock prices, traditional neural network algorithms may incorrectly predict the stock market, since the initial weight of the random selection problem can be easily prone to incorrect predictions. We evaluate UGI Corporation prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Sign Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the UGI stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy UGI stock.


Keywords: UGI, UGI Corporation, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Operational Risk
  2. Should I buy stocks now or wait amid such uncertainty?
  3. Investment Risk

UGI Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Stock market investment strategies are complex and rely on an evaluation of vast amounts of data. In recent years, machine learning techniques have increasingly been examined to assess whether they can improve market forecasting when compared with traditional approaches. The objective for this study is to identify directions for future machine learning stock market prediction research based upon a review of current literature. We consider UGI Corporation Stock Decision Process with Sign Test where A is the set of discrete actions of UGI stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Sign Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) e x rx

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of UGI stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

UGI Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: UGI UGI Corporation
Time series to forecast n: 11 Nov 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy UGI stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for UGI Corporation

  1. If the group of items does not have any offsetting risk positions (for example, a group of foreign currency expenses that affect different line items in the statement of profit or loss and other comprehensive income that are hedged for foreign currency risk) then the reclassified hedging instrument gains or losses shall be apportioned to the line items affected by the hedged items. This apportionment shall be done on a systematic and rational basis and shall not result in the grossing up of the net gains or losses arising from a single hedging instrument.
  2. The requirement that an economic relationship exists means that the hedging instrument and the hedged item have values that generally move in the opposite direction because of the same risk, which is the hedged risk. Hence, there must be an expectation that the value of the hedging instrument and the value of the hedged item will systematically change in response to movements in either the same underlying or underlyings that are economically related in such a way that they respond in a similar way to the risk that is being hedged (for example, Brent and WTI crude oil).
  3. The requirements in paragraphs 6.8.4–6.8.8 may cease to apply at different times. Therefore, in applying paragraph 6.9.1, an entity may be required to amend the formal designation of its hedging relationships at different times, or may be required to amend the formal designation of a hedging relationship more than once. When, and only when, such a change is made to the hedge designation, an entity shall apply paragraphs 6.9.7–6.9.12 as applicable. An entity also shall apply paragraph 6.5.8 (for a fair value hedge) or paragraph 6.5.11 (for a cash flow hedge) to account for any changes in the fair value of the hedged item or the hedging instrument.
  4. An entity has not retained control of a transferred asset if the transferee has the practical ability to sell the transferred asset. An entity has retained control of a transferred asset if the transferee does not have the practical ability to sell the transferred asset. A transferee has the practical ability to sell the transferred asset if it is traded in an active market because the transferee could repurchase the transferred asset in the market if it needs to return the asset to the entity. For example, a transferee may have the practical ability to sell a transferred asset if the transferred asset is subject to an option that allows the entity to repurchase it, but the transferee can readily obtain the transferred asset in the market if the option is exercised. A transferee does not have the practical ability to sell the transferred asset if the entity retains such an option and the transferee cannot readily obtain the transferred asset in the market if the entity exercises its option

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

UGI Corporation assigned short-term B2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) with Sign Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the UGI stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy UGI stock.

Financial State Forecast for UGI UGI Corporation Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2B2
Operational Risk 4733
Market Risk4559
Technical Analysis6157
Fundamental Analysis4952
Risk Unsystematic7746

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 87 out of 100 with 508 signals.

References

  1. Dimakopoulou M, Athey S, Imbens G. 2017. Estimation considerations in contextual bandits. arXiv:1711.07077 [stat.ML]
  2. M. L. Littman. Markov games as a framework for multi-agent reinforcement learning. In Ma- chine Learning, Proceedings of the Eleventh International Conference, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA, July 10-13, 1994, pages 157–163, 1994
  3. Dietterich TG. 2000. Ensemble methods in machine learning. In Multiple Classifier Systems: First International Workshop, Cagliari, Italy, June 21–23, pp. 1–15. Berlin: Springer
  4. Kallus N. 2017. Balanced policy evaluation and learning. arXiv:1705.07384 [stat.ML]
  5. S. J. Russell and A. Zimdars. Q-decomposition for reinforcement learning agents. In Machine Learning, Proceedings of the Twentieth International Conference (ICML 2003), August 21-24, 2003, Washington, DC, USA, pages 656–663, 2003.
  6. N. B ̈auerle and J. Ott. Markov decision processes with average-value-at-risk criteria. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 74(3):361–379, 2011
  7. Mikolov T, Chen K, Corrado GS, Dean J. 2013a. Efficient estimation of word representations in vector space. arXiv:1301.3781 [cs.CL]
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for UGI stock?
A: UGI stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Sign Test
Q: Is UGI stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy UGI Stock.
Q: Is UGI Corporation stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for UGI Corporation is Buy and assigned short-term B2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of UGI stock?
A: The consensus rating for UGI is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for UGI stock?
A: The prediction period for UGI is (n+3 month)

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