PENNPETRO ENERGY PLC Research Report

## Summary

Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) is a sub type of neural networks that use feedback connections. Several types of RNN models are used in predicting financial time series. This study was conducted to develop models to predict daily stock prices based on Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) Approach and to measure the accuracy of the models developed and identify the shortcomings of the models if present. We evaluate PENNPETRO ENERGY PLC prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:PPP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:PPP stock.

## Key Points

1. What are the most successful trading algorithms?
2. Stock Forecast Based On a Predictive Algorithm
3. What is prediction in deep learning?

## LON:PPP Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider PENNPETRO ENERGY PLC Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:PPP stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Multiple Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) $\stackrel{\to }{R}=\left({r}_{1},{r}_{2},{r}_{3}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:PPP stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## LON:PPP Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:PPP PENNPETRO ENERGY PLC
Time series to forecast n: 25 Nov 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:PPP stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for PENNPETRO ENERGY PLC

1. For lifetime expected credit losses, an entity shall estimate the risk of a default occurring on the financial instrument during its expected life. 12-month expected credit losses are a portion of the lifetime expected credit losses and represent the lifetime cash shortfalls that will result if a default occurs in the 12 months after the reporting date (or a shorter period if the expected life of a financial instrument is less than 12 months), weighted by the probability of that default occurring. Thus, 12-month expected credit losses are neither the lifetime expected credit losses that an entity will incur on financial instruments that it predicts will default in the next 12 months nor the cash shortfalls that are predicted over the next 12 months.
2. Rebalancing refers to the adjustments made to the designated quantities of the hedged item or the hedging instrument of an already existing hedging relationship for the purpose of maintaining a hedge ratio that complies with the hedge effectiveness requirements. Changes to designated quantities of a hedged item or of a hedging instrument for a different purpose do not constitute rebalancing for the purpose of this Standard
3. An entity is not required to restate prior periods to reflect the application of these amendments. The entity may restate prior periods if, and only if, it is possible without the use of hindsight and the restated financial statements reflect all the requirements in this Standard. If an entity does not restate prior periods, the entity shall recognise any difference between the previous carrying amount and the carrying amount at the beginning of the annual reporting period that includes the date of initial application of these amendments in the opening retained earnings (or other component of equity, as appropriate) of the annual reporting period that includes the date of initial application of these amendments.
4. Expected credit losses reflect an entity's own expectations of credit losses. However, when considering all reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort in estimating expected credit losses, an entity should also consider observable market information about the credit risk of the particular financial instrument or similar financial instruments.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

## Conclusions

PENNPETRO ENERGY PLC assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) with Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:PPP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:PPP stock.

### Financial State Forecast for LON:PPP PENNPETRO ENERGY PLC Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3Ba1
Operational Risk 6480
Market Risk5684
Technical Analysis3373
Fundamental Analysis8654
Risk Unsystematic8566

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 76 out of 100 with 467 signals.

## References

1. Breiman L. 2001a. Random forests. Mach. Learn. 45:5–32
2. Kitagawa T, Tetenov A. 2015. Who should be treated? Empirical welfare maximization methods for treatment choice. Tech. Rep., Cent. Microdata Methods Pract., Inst. Fiscal Stud., London
3. H. Khalil and J. Grizzle. Nonlinear systems, volume 3. Prentice hall Upper Saddle River, 2002.
4. S. J. Russell and A. Zimdars. Q-decomposition for reinforcement learning agents. In Machine Learning, Proceedings of the Twentieth International Conference (ICML 2003), August 21-24, 2003, Washington, DC, USA, pages 656–663, 2003.
5. Abadie A, Cattaneo MD. 2018. Econometric methods for program evaluation. Annu. Rev. Econ. 10:465–503
6. L. Busoniu, R. Babuska, and B. D. Schutter. A comprehensive survey of multiagent reinforcement learning. IEEE Transactions of Systems, Man, and Cybernetics Part C: Applications and Reviews, 38(2), 2008.
7. M. Petrik and D. Subramanian. An approximate solution method for large risk-averse Markov decision processes. In Proceedings of the 28th International Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, 2012.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:PPP stock?
A: LON:PPP stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is LON:PPP stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:PPP Stock.
Q: Is PENNPETRO ENERGY PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for PENNPETRO ENERGY PLC is Sell and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:PPP stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:PPP is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:PPP stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:PPP is (n+8 weeks)