NXST Options & Futures Prediction

Nexstar Research Report

Summary

This study presents financial network indicators that can be applied to global stock market investment strategies. We propose to design both undirected and directed volatility networks of global stock market based on simple pair-wise correlation and system-wide connectedness of stock date using a vector auto-regressive model. We evaluate Nexstar prediction models with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Sign Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NXST stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell NXST stock.

Key Points

1. Technical Analysis with Algorithmic Trading
2. Market Outlook
3. Trust metric by Neural Network

NXST Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Nexstar Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of NXST stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Sign Test)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(a_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of NXST stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

NXST Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: NXST Nexstar
Time series to forecast n: 19 Nov 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell NXST stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Nexstar

1. For the purpose of determining whether a forecast transaction (or a component thereof) is highly probable as required by paragraph 6.3.3, an entity shall assume that the interest rate benchmark on which the hedged cash flows (contractually or non-contractually specified) are based is not altered as a result of interest rate benchmark reform.
2. An entity's business model refers to how an entity manages its financial assets in order to generate cash flows. That is, the entity's business model determines whether cash flows will result from collecting contractual cash flows, selling financial assets or both. Consequently, this assessment is not performed on the basis of scenarios that the entity does not reasonably expect to occur, such as so-called 'worst case' or 'stress case' scenarios. For example, if an entity expects that it will sell a particular portfolio of financial assets only in a stress case scenario, that scenario would not affect the entity's assessment of the business model for those assets if the entity reasonably expects that such a scenario will not occur. If cash flows are realised in a way that is different from the entity's expectations at the date that the entity assessed the business model (for example, if the entity sells more or fewer financial assets than it expected when it classified the assets), that does not give rise to a prior period error in the entity's financial statements (see IAS 8 Accounting Policies, Changes in Accounting Estimates and Errors) nor does it change the classification of the remaining financial assets held in that business model (ie those assets that the entity recognised in prior periods and still holds) as long as the entity considered all relevant information that was available at the time that it made the business model assessment.
3. In some circumstances an entity does not have reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort to measure lifetime expected credit losses on an individual instrument basis. In that case, lifetime expected credit losses shall be recognised on a collective basis that considers comprehensive credit risk information. This comprehensive credit risk information must incorporate not only past due information but also all relevant credit information, including forward-looking macroeconomic information, in order to approximate the result of recognising lifetime expected credit losses when there has been a significant increase in credit risk since initial recognition on an individual instrument level.
4. One of the defining characteristics of a derivative is that it has an initial net investment that is smaller than would be required for other types of contracts that would be expected to have a similar response to changes in market factors. An option contract meets that definition because the premium is less than the investment that would be required to obtain the underlying financial instrument to which the option is linked. A currency swap that requires an initial exchange of different currencies of equal fair values meets the definition because it has a zero initial net investment.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Nexstar assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) with Sign Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NXST stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell NXST stock.

Financial State Forecast for NXST Nexstar Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B2	B1
Operational Risk	67	48
Market Risk	49	56
Technical Analysis	65	60
Fundamental Analysis	70	30
Risk Unsystematic	32	89

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 81 out of 100 with 873 signals.

References

1. Bai J. 2003. Inferential theory for factor models of large dimensions. Econometrica 71:135–71
2. Candès E, Tao T. 2007. The Dantzig selector: statistical estimation when p is much larger than n. Ann. Stat. 35:2313–51
3. G. Shani, R. Brafman, and D. Heckerman. An MDP-based recommender system. In Proceedings of the Eigh- teenth conference on Uncertainty in artificial intelligence, pages 453–460. Morgan Kaufmann Publishers Inc., 2002
4. L. Prashanth and M. Ghavamzadeh. Actor-critic algorithms for risk-sensitive MDPs. In Proceedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 26, pages 252–260, 2013.
5. K. Boda and J. Filar. Time consistent dynamic risk measures. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 63(1):169–186, 2006
6. Dudik M, Erhan D, Langford J, Li L. 2014. Doubly robust policy evaluation and optimization. Stat. Sci. 29:485–511
7. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Tibshirani RJ. 2017. Extended comparisons of best subset selection, forward stepwise selection, and the lasso. arXiv:1707.08692 [stat.ME]

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for NXST stock?
A: NXST stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Sign Test
Q: Is NXST stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell NXST Stock.
Q: Is Nexstar stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Nexstar is Sell and assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of NXST stock?
A: The consensus rating for NXST is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for NXST stock?
A: The prediction period for NXST is (n+6 month)

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