Should You Buy, Sell, or Hold? (NSE MOTHERSUMI Stock Forecast)

Motherson Sumi Systems Limited Research Report

Summary

This paper proposes genetic algorithms (GAs) approach to feature discretization and the determination of connection weights for artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict the stock price index. Previous research proposed many hybrid models of ANN and GA for the method of training the network, feature subset selection, and topology optimization. We evaluate Motherson Sumi Systems Limited prediction models with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Multiple Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NSE MOTHERSUMI stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NSE MOTHERSUMI stock.

Key Points

1. Prediction Modeling
2. Reaction Function
3. Reaction Function

NSE MOTHERSUMI Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Motherson Sumi Systems Limited Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) where A is the set of discrete actions of NSE MOTHERSUMI stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Multiple Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) $\overrightarrow{R}=\left(r_1,r_2,r_3\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of NSE MOTHERSUMI stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

NSE MOTHERSUMI Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: NSE MOTHERSUMI Motherson Sumi Systems Limited
Time series to forecast n: 20 Nov 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NSE MOTHERSUMI stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Motherson Sumi Systems Limited

1. If the underlyings are not the same but are economically related, there can be situations in which the values of the hedging instrument and the hedged item move in the same direction, for example, because the price differential between the two related underlyings changes while the underlyings themselves do not move significantly. That is still consistent with an economic relationship between the hedging instrument and the hedged item if the values of the hedging instrument and the hedged item are still expected to typically move in the opposite direction when the underlyings move.
2. The change in the value of the hedged item determined using a hypothetical derivative may also be used for the purpose of assessing whether a hedging relationship meets the hedge effectiveness requirements.
3. For example, an entity may use this condition to designate financial liabilities as at fair value through profit or loss if it meets the principle in paragraph 4.2.2(b) and the entity has financial assets and financial liabilities that share one or more risks and those risks are managed and evaluated on a fair value basis in accordance with a documented policy of asset and liability management. An example could be an entity that has issued 'structured products' containing multiple embedded derivatives and manages the resulting risks on a fair value basis using a mix of derivative and non-derivative financial instruments
4. In the reporting period that includes the date of initial application of these amendments, an entity is not required to present the quantitative information required by paragraph 28(f) of IAS 8.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Motherson Sumi Systems Limited assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) with Multiple Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NSE MOTHERSUMI stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NSE MOTHERSUMI stock.

Financial State Forecast for NSE MOTHERSUMI Motherson Sumi Systems Limited Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba3	B1
Operational Risk	30	44
Market Risk	73	51
Technical Analysis	88	79
Fundamental Analysis	57	59
Risk Unsystematic	68	58

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 84 out of 100 with 710 signals.

References

1. G. Theocharous and A. Hallak. Lifetime value marketing using reinforcement learning. RLDM 2013, page 19, 2013
2. Greene WH. 2000. Econometric Analysis. Upper Saddle River, N J: Prentice Hall. 4th ed.
3. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Friedman J. 2009. The Elements of Statistical Learning. Berlin: Springer
4. Zou H, Hastie T. 2005. Regularization and variable selection via the elastic net. J. R. Stat. Soc. B 67:301–20
5. J. N. Foerster, Y. M. Assael, N. de Freitas, and S. Whiteson. Learning to communicate with deep multi-agent reinforcement learning. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 29: Annual Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems 2016, December 5-10, 2016, Barcelona, Spain, pages 2137–2145, 2016.
6. Clements, M. P. D. F. Hendry (1996), "Intercept corrections and structural change," Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11, 475–494.
7. Byron, R. P. O. Ashenfelter (1995), "Predicting the quality of an unborn grange," Economic Record, 71, 40–53.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for NSE MOTHERSUMI stock?
A: NSE MOTHERSUMI stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is NSE MOTHERSUMI stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NSE MOTHERSUMI Stock.
Q: Is Motherson Sumi Systems Limited stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Motherson Sumi Systems Limited is Hold and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of NSE MOTHERSUMI stock?
A: The consensus rating for NSE MOTHERSUMI is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for NSE MOTHERSUMI stock?
A: The prediction period for NSE MOTHERSUMI is (n+1 year)

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