**Outlook:**Baozun Inc. American Depositary Shares assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.

**Dominant Strategy :**Hold

**Time series to forecast n: 18 Dec 2022**for (n+16 weeks)

**Methodology :**Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)

## Abstract

Stock market trading is an activity in which investors need fast and accurate information to make effective decisions. Since many stocks are traded on a stock exchange, numerous factors influence the decision-making process. Moreover, the behaviour of stock prices is uncertain and hard to predict. For these reasons, stock price prediction is an important process and a challenging one.(Kanade, P.A., Singh, S., Rajoria, S., Veer, P. and Wandile, N., 2020. Machine learning model for stock market prediction. International Journal for Research in Applied Science and Engineering Technology, 8(6), pp.209-216.)** We evaluate Baozun Inc. American Depositary Shares prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and ElasticNet Regression ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the BZUN stock is predictable in the short/long term. **

**According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold**

## Key Points

- What is the use of Markov decision process?
- Short/Long Term Stocks
- Technical Analysis with Algorithmic Trading

## BZUN Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Baozun Inc. American Depositary Shares Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of BZUN stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^{1,2,3,4}

F(ElasticNet Regression)

^{5,6,7}= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& {p}_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) $\begin{array}{l}\int {e}^{x}\mathrm{rx}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of BZUN stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## BZUN Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

**Sample Set:**Neural Network

**Stock/Index:**BZUN Baozun Inc. American Depositary Shares

**Time series to forecast n: 18 Dec 2022**for (n+16 weeks)

**According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold**

**X axis: *Likelihood%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

**Y axis: *Potential Impact%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

**Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%**

## Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Baozun Inc. American Depositary Shares

- For the purpose of applying paragraph 6.5.11, at the point when an entity amends the description of a hedged item as required in paragraph 6.9.1(b), the amount accumulated in the cash flow hedge reserve shall be deemed to be based on the alternative benchmark rate on which the hedged future cash flows are determined.
- To the extent that a transfer of a financial asset does not qualify for derecognition, the transferor's contractual rights or obligations related to the transfer are not accounted for separately as derivatives if recognising both the derivative and either the transferred asset or the liability arising from the transfer would result in recognising the same rights or obligations twice. For example, a call option retained by the transferor may prevent a transfer of financial assets from being accounted for as a sale. In that case, the call option is not separately recognised as a derivative asset.
- The change in the value of the hedged item determined using a hypothetical derivative may also be used for the purpose of assessing whether a hedging relationship meets the hedge effectiveness requirements.
- To the extent that a transfer of a financial asset does not qualify for derecognition, the transferee does not recognise the transferred asset as its asset. The transferee derecognises the cash or other consideration paid and recognises a receivable from the transferor. If the transferor has both a right and an obligation to reacquire control of the entire transferred asset for a fixed amount (such as under a repurchase agreement), the transferee may measure its receivable at amortised cost if it meets the criteria in paragraph 4.1.2.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

## Conclusions

Baozun Inc. American Depositary Shares assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.** We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) with ElasticNet Regression ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the BZUN stock is predictable in the short/long term.**

**According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold**

### Financial State Forecast for BZUN Baozun Inc. American Depositary Shares Options & Futures

Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
---|---|---|

Outlook* | B1 | B2 |

Operational Risk | 81 | 49 |

Market Risk | 73 | 57 |

Technical Analysis | 37 | 59 |

Fundamental Analysis | 88 | 39 |

Risk Unsystematic | 31 | 67 |

### Prediction Confidence Score

## References

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- V. Borkar and R. Jain. Risk-constrained Markov decision processes. IEEE Transaction on Automatic Control, 2014
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## Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for BZUN stock?A: BZUN stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and ElasticNet Regression

Q: Is BZUN stock a buy or sell?

A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold BZUN Stock.

Q: Is Baozun Inc. American Depositary Shares stock a good investment?

A: The consensus rating for Baozun Inc. American Depositary Shares is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.

Q: What is the consensus rating of BZUN stock?

A: The consensus rating for BZUN is Hold.

Q: What is the prediction period for BZUN stock?

A: The prediction period for BZUN is (n+16 weeks)