Modelling A.I. in Economics

EBC Eastern Bankshares Inc. Common Stock (Forecast)

Eastern Bankshares Inc. Common Stock Research Report

Summary

Time series forecasting has been widely used to determine the future prices of stock, and the analysis and modeling of finance time series importantly guide investors' decisions and trades. In addition, in a dynamic environment such as the stock market, the nonlinearity of the time series is pronounced, immediately affecting the efficacy of stock price forecasts. Thus, this paper proposes an intelligent time series prediction system that uses sliding-window metaheuristic optimization for the purpose of predicting the stock prices. We evaluate Eastern Bankshares Inc. Common Stock prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the EBC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell EBC stock.

Key Points

  1. Which neural network is best for prediction?
  2. What are the most successful trading algorithms?
  3. Game Theory

EBC Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Eastern Bankshares Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of EBC stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Multiple Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of EBC stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

EBC Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: EBC Eastern Bankshares Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 03 Dec 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell EBC stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Eastern Bankshares Inc. Common Stock

  1. An entity shall apply Annual Improvements to IFRS Standards 2018–2020 to financial liabilities that are modified or exchanged on or after the beginning of the annual reporting period in which the entity first applies the amendment.
  2. When measuring the fair values of the part that continues to be recognised and the part that is derecognised for the purposes of applying paragraph 3.2.13, an entity applies the fair value measurement requirements in IFRS 13 Fair Value Measurement in addition to paragraph 3.2.14.
  3. An entity may use practical expedients when measuring expected credit losses if they are consistent with the principles in paragraph 5.5.17. An example of a practical expedient is the calculation of the expected credit losses on trade receivables using a provision matrix. The entity would use its historical credit loss experience (adjusted as appropriate in accordance with paragraphs B5.5.51–B5.5.52) for trade receivables to estimate the 12-month expected credit losses or the lifetime expected credit losses on the financial assets as relevant. A provision matrix might, for example, specify fixed provision rates depending on the number of days that a trade receivable is past due (for example, 1 per cent if not past due, 2 per cent if less than 30 days past due, 3 per cent if more than 30 days but less than 90 days past due, 20 per cent if 90–180 days past due etc). Depending on the diversity of its customer base, the entity would use appropriate groupings if its historical credit loss experience shows significantly different loss patterns for different customer segments. Examples of criteria that might be used to group assets include geographical region, product type, customer rating, collateral or trade credit insurance and type of customer (such as wholesale or retail)
  4. An entity's documentation of the hedging relationship includes how it will assess the hedge effectiveness requirements, including the method or methods used. The documentation of the hedging relationship shall be updated for any changes to the methods (see paragraph B6.4.17).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Eastern Bankshares Inc. Common Stock assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) with Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the EBC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell EBC stock.

Financial State Forecast for EBC Eastern Bankshares Inc. Common Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1B1
Operational Risk 6940
Market Risk8234
Technical Analysis7682
Fundamental Analysis8675
Risk Unsystematic4863

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 87 out of 100 with 633 signals.

References

  1. V. Borkar. An actor-critic algorithm for constrained Markov decision processes. Systems & Control Letters, 54(3):207–213, 2005.
  2. R. Rockafellar and S. Uryasev. Conditional value-at-risk for general loss distributions. Journal of Banking and Finance, 26(7):1443 – 1471, 2002
  3. V. Borkar. A sensitivity formula for the risk-sensitive cost and the actor-critic algorithm. Systems & Control Letters, 44:339–346, 2001
  4. Burkov A. 2019. The Hundred-Page Machine Learning Book. Quebec City, Can.: Andriy Burkov
  5. Dimakopoulou M, Athey S, Imbens G. 2017. Estimation considerations in contextual bandits. arXiv:1711.07077 [stat.ML]
  6. Mnih A, Teh YW. 2012. A fast and simple algorithm for training neural probabilistic language models. In Proceedings of the 29th International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 419–26. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
  7. Meinshausen N. 2007. Relaxed lasso. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 52:374–93
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for EBC stock?
A: EBC stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is EBC stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell EBC Stock.
Q: Is Eastern Bankshares Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Eastern Bankshares Inc. Common Stock is Sell and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of EBC stock?
A: The consensus rating for EBC is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for EBC stock?
A: The prediction period for EBC is (n+4 weeks)

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