**Outlook:**Virtus Stone Harbor Emerging Markets Income Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interest assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.

**Dominant Strategy :**Wait until speculative trend diminishes

**Time series to forecast n: 16 Dec 2022**for (n+4 weeks)

**Methodology :**Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis)

## Abstract

Stock prediction is a very hot topic in our life. However, in the early time, because of some reasons and the limitation of the device, only a few people had the access to the study. Thanks to the rapid development of science and technology, in recent years more and more people are devoted to the study of the prediction and it becomes easier and easier for us to make stock prediction by using different ways now, including machine learning, deep learning and so on. (Prasad, V.V., Gumparthi, S., Venkataramana, L.Y., Srinethe, S., Sruthi Sree, R.M. and Nishanthi, K., 2022. Prediction of Stock Prices Using Statistical and Machine Learning Models: A Comparative Analysis. The Computer Journal, 65(5), pp.1338-1351.)** We evaluate Virtus Stone Harbor Emerging Markets Income Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interest prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Paired T-Test ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the EDF stock is predictable in the short/long term. **

**According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes**

## Key Points

- Probability Distribution
- What are buy sell or hold recommendations?
- Prediction Modeling

## EDF Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Virtus Stone Harbor Emerging Markets Income Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interest Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of EDF stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^{1,2,3,4}

F(Paired T-Test)

^{5,6,7}= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& {p}_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) $\overrightarrow{S}=\left({s}_{1},{s}_{2},{s}_{3}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of EDF stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## EDF Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

**Sample Set:**Neural Network

**Stock/Index:**EDF Virtus Stone Harbor Emerging Markets Income Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interest

**Time series to forecast n: 16 Dec 2022**for (n+4 weeks)

**According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes**

**X axis: *Likelihood%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

**Y axis: *Potential Impact%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

**Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%**

## Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Virtus Stone Harbor Emerging Markets Income Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interest

- When defining default for the purposes of determining the risk of a default occurring, an entity shall apply a default definition that is consistent with the definition used for internal credit risk management purposes for the relevant financial instrument and consider qualitative indicators (for example, financial covenants) when appropriate. However, there is a rebuttable presumption that default does not occur later than when a financial asset is 90 days past due unless an entity has reasonable and supportable information to demonstrate that a more lagging default criterion is more appropriate. The definition of default used for these purposes shall be applied consistently to all financial instruments unless information becomes available that demonstrates that another default definition is more appropriate for a particular financial instrument.
- The accounting for the time value of options in accordance with paragraph 6.5.15 applies only to the extent that the time value relates to the hedged item (aligned time value). The time value of an option relates to the hedged item if the critical terms of the option (such as the nominal amount, life and underlying) are aligned with the hedged item. Hence, if the critical terms of the option and the hedged item are not fully aligned, an entity shall determine the aligned time value, ie how much of the time value included in the premium (actual time value) relates to the hedged item (and therefore should be treated in accordance with paragraph 6.5.15). An entity determines the aligned time value using the valuation of the option that would have critical terms that perfectly match the hedged item.
- Expected credit losses are a probability-weighted estimate of credit losses (ie the present value of all cash shortfalls) over the expected life of the financial instrument. A cash shortfall is the difference between the cash flows that are due to an entity in accordance with the contract and the cash flows that the entity expects to receive. Because expected credit losses consider the amount and timing of payments, a credit loss arises even if the entity expects to be paid in full but later than when contractually due.
- To make that determination, an entity must assess whether it expects that the effects of changes in the liability's credit risk will be offset in profit or loss by a change in the fair value of another financial instrument measured at fair value through profit or loss. Such an expectation must be based on an economic relationship between the characteristics of the liability and the characteristics of the other financial instrument.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

## Conclusions

Virtus Stone Harbor Emerging Markets Income Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interest assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.** We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) with Paired T-Test ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the EDF stock is predictable in the short/long term.**

**According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes**

### Financial State Forecast for EDF Virtus Stone Harbor Emerging Markets Income Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interest Options & Futures

Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
---|---|---|

Outlook* | B1 | B1 |

Operational Risk | 57 | 38 |

Market Risk | 81 | 86 |

Technical Analysis | 39 | 64 |

Fundamental Analysis | 77 | 66 |

Risk Unsystematic | 36 | 33 |

### Prediction Confidence Score

## References

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- Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., Short/Long Term Stocks: FOX Stock Forecast. AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
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- E. Collins. Using Markov decision processes to optimize a nonlinear functional of the final distribution, with manufacturing applications. In Stochastic Modelling in Innovative Manufacturing, pages 30–45. Springer, 1997

## Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for EDF stock?A: EDF stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Paired T-Test

Q: Is EDF stock a buy or sell?

A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Wait until speculative trend diminishes EDF Stock.

Q: Is Virtus Stone Harbor Emerging Markets Income Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interest stock a good investment?

A: The consensus rating for Virtus Stone Harbor Emerging Markets Income Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interest is Wait until speculative trend diminishes and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.

Q: What is the consensus rating of EDF stock?

A: The consensus rating for EDF is Wait until speculative trend diminishes.

Q: What is the prediction period for EDF stock?

A: The prediction period for EDF is (n+4 weeks)