Modelling A.I. in Economics

EP Empire Petroleum Corporation Common Stock (Forecast)

...........................

Outlook: Empire Petroleum Corporation Common Stock assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Signal: Hold
Time series to forecast n: 06 Dec 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

...........................

Abstract

With the advent of technological marvels like global digitization, the prediction of the stock market has entered a technologically advanced era, revamping the old model of trading. With the ceaseless increase in market capitalization, stock trading has become a center of investment for many financial investors. Many analysts and researchers have developed tools and techniques that predict stock price movements and help investors in proper decision-making.(Beg, M.O., Awan, M.N. and Ali, S.S., 2019. Algorithmic machine learning for prediction of stock prices. In FinTech as a Disruptive Technology for Financial Institutions (pp. 142-169). IGI Global.) We evaluate Empire Petroleum Corporation Common Stock prediction models with Ensemble Learning (ML) and Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the EP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold EP stock.

Key Points

  1. Can we predict stock market using machine learning?
  2. What are the most successful trading algorithms?
  3. What is statistical models in machine learning?

EP Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Empire Petroleum Corporation Common Stock Decision Process with Ensemble Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of EP stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Linear Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Ensemble Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) i = 1 n a i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of EP stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

EP Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: EP Empire Petroleum Corporation Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 06 Dec 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold EP stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Empire Petroleum Corporation Common Stock

  1. A firm commitment to acquire a business in a business combination cannot be a hedged item, except for foreign currency risk, because the other risks being hedged cannot be specifically identified and measured. Those other risks are general business risks.
  2. Adjusting the hedge ratio by decreasing the volume of the hedged item does not affect how the changes in the fair value of the hedging instrument are measured. The measurement of the changes in the value of the hedged item related to the volume that continues to be designated also remains unaffected. However, from the date of rebalancing, the volume by which the hedged item was decreased is no longer part of the hedging relationship. For example, if an entity originally hedged a volume of 100 tonnes of a commodity at a forward price of CU80 and reduces that volume by 10 tonnes on rebalancing, the hedged item after rebalancing would be 90 tonnes hedged at CU80. The 10 tonnes of the hedged item that are no longer part of the hedging relationship would be accounted for in accordance with the requirements for the discontinuation of hedge accounting (see paragraphs 6.5.6–6.5.7 and B6.5.22–B6.5.28).
  3. If the underlyings are not the same but are economically related, there can be situations in which the values of the hedging instrument and the hedged item move in the same direction, for example, because the price differential between the two related underlyings changes while the underlyings themselves do not move significantly. That is still consistent with an economic relationship between the hedging instrument and the hedged item if the values of the hedging instrument and the hedged item are still expected to typically move in the opposite direction when the underlyings move.
  4. In almost every lending transaction the creditor's instrument is ranked relative to the instruments of the debtor's other creditors. An instrument that is subordinated to other instruments may have contractual cash flows that are payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding if the debtor's non-payment is a breach of contract and the holder has a contractual right to unpaid amounts of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding even in the event of the debtor's bankruptcy. For example, a trade receivable that ranks its creditor as a general creditor would qualify as having payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding. This is the case even if the debtor issued loans that are collateralised, which in the event of bankruptcy would give that loan holder priority over the claims of the general creditor in respect of the collateral but does not affect the contractual right of the general creditor to unpaid principal and other amounts due.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Empire Petroleum Corporation Common Stock assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) with Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the EP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold EP stock.

Financial State Forecast for EP Empire Petroleum Corporation Common Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3B1
Operational Risk 8136
Market Risk5868
Technical Analysis4245
Fundamental Analysis7565
Risk Unsystematic6467

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 73 out of 100 with 717 signals.

References

  1. Artis, M. J. W. Zhang (1990), "BVAR forecasts for the G-7," International Journal of Forecasting, 6, 349–362.
  2. Thompson WR. 1933. On the likelihood that one unknown probability exceeds another in view of the evidence of two samples. Biometrika 25:285–94
  3. A. K. Agogino and K. Tumer. Analyzing and visualizing multiagent rewards in dynamic and stochastic environments. Journal of Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems, 17(2):320–338, 2008
  4. LeCun Y, Bengio Y, Hinton G. 2015. Deep learning. Nature 521:436–44
  5. Bastani H, Bayati M. 2015. Online decision-making with high-dimensional covariates. Work. Pap., Univ. Penn./ Stanford Grad. School Bus., Philadelphia/Stanford, CA
  6. Tibshirani R, Hastie T. 1987. Local likelihood estimation. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 82:559–67
  7. Breusch, T. S. A. R. Pagan (1979), "A simple test for heteroskedasticity and random coefficient variation," Econometrica, 47, 1287–1294.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for EP stock?
A: EP stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) and Linear Regression
Q: Is EP stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold EP Stock.
Q: Is Empire Petroleum Corporation Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Empire Petroleum Corporation Common Stock is Hold and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of EP stock?
A: The consensus rating for EP is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for EP stock?
A: The prediction period for EP is (n+8 weeks)

Premium

  • Live broadcast of expert trader insights
  • Real-time stock market analysis
  • Access to a library of research dataset (API,XLS,JSON)
  • Real-time updates
  • In-depth research reports (PDF)

Login
This project is licensed under the license; additional terms may apply.