FRONTIER DEVELOPMENTS PLC Research Report

## Abstract

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Outlook: FRONTIER DEVELOPMENTS PLC assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Signal: Hold
Time series to forecast n: 06 Dec 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

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The classical linear multi-factor stock selection model is widely used for long-term stock price trend prediction. However, the stock market is chaotic, complex, and dynamic, for which reasons the linear model assumption may be unreasonable, and it is more meaningful to construct a better-integrated stock selection model based on different feature selection and nonlinear stock price trend prediction methods.(Yuan, X., Yuan, J., Jiang, T. and Ain, Q.U., 2020. Integrated long-term stock selection models based on feature selection and machine learning algorithms for China stock market. IEEE Access, 8, pp.22672-22685.) We evaluate FRONTIER DEVELOPMENTS PLC prediction models with Transductive Learning (ML) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:FDEV stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:FDEV stock.

## Key Points

1. What is prediction model?
2. What are main components of Markov decision process?
3. Is now good time to invest?

## LON:FDEV Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider FRONTIER DEVELOPMENTS PLC Decision Process with Transductive Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:FDEV stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Statistical Hypothesis Testing)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Transductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) $\stackrel{\to }{R}=\left({r}_{1},{r}_{2},{r}_{3}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:FDEV stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## LON:FDEV Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:FDEV FRONTIER DEVELOPMENTS PLC
Time series to forecast n: 06 Dec 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:FDEV stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for FRONTIER DEVELOPMENTS PLC

1. Adjusting the hedge ratio by decreasing the volume of the hedged item does not affect how the changes in the fair value of the hedging instrument are measured. The measurement of the changes in the value of the hedged item related to the volume that continues to be designated also remains unaffected. However, from the date of rebalancing, the volume by which the hedged item was decreased is no longer part of the hedging relationship. For example, if an entity originally hedged a volume of 100 tonnes of a commodity at a forward price of CU80 and reduces that volume by 10 tonnes on rebalancing, the hedged item after rebalancing would be 90 tonnes hedged at CU80. The 10 tonnes of the hedged item that are no longer part of the hedging relationship would be accounted for in accordance with the requirements for the discontinuation of hedge accounting (see paragraphs 6.5.6–6.5.7 and B6.5.22–B6.5.28).
2. When identifying what risk components qualify for designation as a hedged item, an entity assesses such risk components within the context of the particular market structure to which the risk or risks relate and in which the hedging activity takes place. Such a determination requires an evaluation of the relevant facts and circumstances, which differ by risk and market.
3. For the purpose of recognising foreign exchange gains and losses under IAS 21, a financial asset measured at fair value through other comprehensive income in accordance with paragraph 4.1.2A is treated as a monetary item. Accordingly, such a financial asset is treated as an asset measured at amortised cost in the foreign currency. Exchange differences on the amortised cost are recognised in profit or loss and other changes in the carrying amount are recognised in accordance with paragraph 5.7.10.
4. The definition of a derivative in this Standard includes contracts that are settled gross by delivery of the underlying item (eg a forward contract to purchase a fixed rate debt instrument). An entity may have a contract to buy or sell a non-financial item that can be settled net in cash or another financial instrument or by exchanging financial instruments (eg a contract to buy or sell a commodity at a fixed price at a future date). Such a contract is within the scope of this Standard unless it was entered into and continues to be held for the purpose of delivery of a non-financial item in accordance with the entity's expected purchase, sale or usage requirements. However, this Standard applies to such contracts for an entity's expected purchase, sale or usage requirements if the entity makes a designation in accordance with paragraph 2.5 (see paragraphs 2.4–2.7).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

## Conclusions

FRONTIER DEVELOPMENTS PLC assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Transductive Learning (ML) with Statistical Hypothesis Testing1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:FDEV stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:FDEV stock.

### Financial State Forecast for LON:FDEV FRONTIER DEVELOPMENTS PLC Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3B2
Operational Risk 6241
Market Risk6866
Technical Analysis8939
Fundamental Analysis6459
Risk Unsystematic3454

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 75 out of 100 with 725 signals.

## References

1. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., Short/Long Term Stocks: FOX Stock Forecast. AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
2. Meinshausen N. 2007. Relaxed lasso. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 52:374–93
3. D. Bertsekas. Dynamic programming and optimal control. Athena Scientific, 1995.
4. Kallus N. 2017. Balanced policy evaluation and learning. arXiv:1705.07384 [stat.ML]
5. Keane MP. 2013. Panel data discrete choice models of consumer demand. In The Oxford Handbook of Panel Data, ed. BH Baltagi, pp. 54–102. Oxford, UK: Oxford Univ. Press
6. Abadir, K. M., K. Hadri E. Tzavalis (1999), "The influence of VAR dimensions on estimator biases," Econometrica, 67, 163–181.
7. N. B ̈auerle and J. Ott. Markov decision processes with average-value-at-risk criteria. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 74(3):361–379, 2011
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:FDEV stock?
A: LON:FDEV stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Transductive Learning (ML) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing
Q: Is LON:FDEV stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:FDEV Stock.
Q: Is FRONTIER DEVELOPMENTS PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for FRONTIER DEVELOPMENTS PLC is Hold and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:FDEV stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:FDEV is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:FDEV stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:FDEV is (n+16 weeks)