**Outlook:**EngageSmart Inc. Common Stock assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.

**Dominant Strategy :**Sell

**Time series to forecast n: 13 Dec 2022**for (n+4 weeks)

**Methodology :**Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis)

## Abstract

Stock price prediction has always been a challenging task for the researchers in financial domain. While the Efficient Market Hypothesis claims that it is impossible to predict stock prices accurately, there are work in the literature that have demonstrated that stock price movements can be forecasted with a reasonable degree of accuracy, if appropriate variables are chosen and suitable predictive models are built using those variables. In this work, we present a robust and accurate framework of stock price prediction using statistical, machine learning and deep learning methods(Mehtab, S., Sen, J. and Dutta, A., 2021. Stock price prediction using machine learning and LSTM-based deep learning models. In Symposium on Machine Learning and Metaheuristics Algorithms, and Applications (pp. 88-106). Springer, Singapore.)** We evaluate EngageSmart Inc. Common Stock prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Independent T-Test ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the ESMT stock is predictable in the short/long term. **

**According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell**

## Key Points

- Reaction Function
- Short/Long Term Stocks
- Technical Analysis with Algorithmic Trading

## ESMT Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider EngageSmart Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of ESMT stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^{1,2,3,4}

F(Independent T-Test)

^{5,6,7}= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& {p}_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) $\overrightarrow{R}=\left({r}_{1},{r}_{2},{r}_{3}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ESMT stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## ESMT Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

**Sample Set:**Neural Network

**Stock/Index:**ESMT EngageSmart Inc. Common Stock

**Time series to forecast n: 13 Dec 2022**for (n+4 weeks)

**According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell**

**X axis: *Likelihood%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

**Y axis: *Potential Impact%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

**Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%**

## Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for EngageSmart Inc. Common Stock

- All investments in equity instruments and contracts on those instruments must be measured at fair value. However, in limited circumstances, cost may be an appropriate estimate of fair value. That may be the case if insufficient more recent information is available to measure fair value, or if there is a wide range of possible fair value measurements and cost represents the best estimate of fair value within that range.
- Paragraph 5.7.5 permits an entity to make an irrevocable election to present in other comprehensive income subsequent changes in the fair value of particular investments in equity instruments. Such an investment is not a monetary item. Accordingly, the gain or loss that is presented in other comprehensive income in accordance with paragraph 5.7.5 includes any related foreign exchange component.
- If the contractual cash flows on a financial asset have been renegotiated or otherwise modified, but the financial asset is not derecognised, that financial asset is not automatically considered to have lower credit risk. An entity shall assess whether there has been a significant increase in credit risk since initial recognition on the basis of all reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort. This includes historical and forwardlooking information and an assessment of the credit risk over the expected life of the financial asset, which includes information about the circumstances that led to the modification. Evidence that the criteria for the recognition of lifetime expected credit losses are no longer met may include a history of up-to-date and timely payment performance against the modified contractual terms. Typically a customer would need to demonstrate consistently good payment behaviour over a period of time before the credit risk is considered to have decreased.
- Interest Rate Benchmark Reform, which amended IFRS 9, IAS 39 and IFRS 7, issued in September 2019, added Section 6.8 and amended paragraph 7.2.26. An entity shall apply these amendments for annual periods beginning on or after 1 January 2020. Earlier application is permitted. If an entity applies these amendments for an earlier period, it shall disclose that fact.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

## Conclusions

EngageSmart Inc. Common Stock assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.** We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) with Independent T-Test ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the ESMT stock is predictable in the short/long term.**

**According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell**

### Financial State Forecast for ESMT EngageSmart Inc. Common Stock Options & Futures

Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
---|---|---|

Outlook* | B2 | Ba3 |

Operational Risk | 53 | 56 |

Market Risk | 34 | 46 |

Technical Analysis | 53 | 73 |

Fundamental Analysis | 45 | 44 |

Risk Unsystematic | 90 | 87 |

### Prediction Confidence Score

## References

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- Gentzkow M, Kelly BT, Taddy M. 2017. Text as data. NBER Work. Pap. 23276
- Zubizarreta JR. 2015. Stable weights that balance covariates for estimation with incomplete outcome data. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 110:910–22
- M. L. Littman. Markov games as a framework for multi-agent reinforcement learning. In Ma- chine Learning, Proceedings of the Eleventh International Conference, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA, July 10-13, 1994, pages 157–163, 1994
- J. Harb and D. Precup. Investigating recurrence and eligibility traces in deep Q-networks. In Deep Reinforcement Learning Workshop, NIPS 2016, Barcelona, Spain, 2016.
- Belloni A, Chernozhukov V, Hansen C. 2014. High-dimensional methods and inference on structural and treatment effects. J. Econ. Perspect. 28:29–50
- T. Shardlow and A. Stuart. A perturbation theory for ergodic Markov chains and application to numerical approximations. SIAM journal on numerical analysis, 37(4):1120–1137, 2000

## Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for ESMT stock?A: ESMT stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Independent T-Test

Q: Is ESMT stock a buy or sell?

A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell ESMT Stock.

Q: Is EngageSmart Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?

A: The consensus rating for EngageSmart Inc. Common Stock is Sell and assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.

Q: What is the consensus rating of ESMT stock?

A: The consensus rating for ESMT is Sell.

Q: What is the prediction period for ESMT stock?

A: The prediction period for ESMT is (n+4 weeks)