**Outlook:**HealthEquity Inc. Common Stock assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.

**Dominant Strategy :**Wait until speculative trend diminishes

**Time series to forecast n: 14 Dec 2022**for (n+4 weeks)

**Methodology :**Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)

## Abstract

Stock market investment strategies are complex and rely on an evaluation of vast amounts of data. In recent years, machine learning techniques have increasingly been examined to assess whether they can improve market forecasting when compared with traditional approaches. The objective for this study is to identify directions for future machine learning stock market prediction research based upon a review of current literature.(Chen, W., Zhang, H., Mehlawat, M.K. and Jia, L., 2021. Mean–variance portfolio optimization using machine learning-based stock price prediction. Applied Soft Computing, 100, p.106943.)** We evaluate HealthEquity Inc. Common Stock prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Spearman Correlation ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the HQY stock is predictable in the short/long term. **

**According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes**

## Key Points

- How do you know when a stock will go up or down?
- Is it better to buy and sell or hold?
- What is the use of Markov decision process?

## HQY Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider HealthEquity Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of HQY stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^{1,2,3,4}

F(Spearman Correlation)

^{5,6,7}= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& {p}_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) $\sum _{i=1}^{n}\left({r}_{i}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of HQY stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## HQY Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

**Sample Set:**Neural Network

**Stock/Index:**HQY HealthEquity Inc. Common Stock

**Time series to forecast n: 14 Dec 2022**for (n+4 weeks)

**According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes**

**X axis: *Likelihood%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

**Y axis: *Potential Impact%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

**Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%**

## Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for HealthEquity Inc. Common Stock

- The risk of a default occurring on financial instruments that have comparable credit risk is higher the longer the expected life of the instrument; for example, the risk of a default occurring on an AAA-rated bond with an expected life of 10 years is higher than that on an AAA-rated bond with an expected life of five years.
- A firm commitment to acquire a business in a business combination cannot be a hedged item, except for foreign currency risk, because the other risks being hedged cannot be specifically identified and measured. Those other risks are general business risks.
- An entity has not retained control of a transferred asset if the transferee has the practical ability to sell the transferred asset. An entity has retained control of a transferred asset if the transferee does not have the practical ability to sell the transferred asset. A transferee has the practical ability to sell the transferred asset if it is traded in an active market because the transferee could repurchase the transferred asset in the market if it needs to return the asset to the entity. For example, a transferee may have the practical ability to sell a transferred asset if the transferred asset is subject to an option that allows the entity to repurchase it, but the transferee can readily obtain the transferred asset in the market if the option is exercised. A transferee does not have the practical ability to sell the transferred asset if the entity retains such an option and the transferee cannot readily obtain the transferred asset in the market if the entity exercises its option
- To calculate the change in the value of the hedged item for the purpose of measuring hedge ineffectiveness, an entity may use a derivative that would have terms that match the critical terms of the hedged item (this is commonly referred to as a 'hypothetical derivative'), and, for example for a hedge of a forecast transaction, would be calibrated using the hedged price (or rate) level. For example, if the hedge was for a two-sided risk at the current market level, the hypothetical derivative would represent a hypothetical forward contract that is calibrated to a value of nil at the time of designation of the hedging relationship. If the hedge was for example for a one-sided risk, the hypothetical derivative would represent the intrinsic value of a hypothetical option that at the time of designation of the hedging relationship is at the money if the hedged price level is the current market level, or out of the money if the hedged price level is above (or, for a hedge of a long position, below) the current market level. Using a hypothetical derivative is one possible way of calculating the change in the value of the hedged item. The hypothetical derivative replicates the hedged item and hence results in the same outcome as if that change in value was determined by a different approach. Hence, using a 'hypothetical derivative' is not a method in its own right but a mathematical expedient that can only be used to calculate the value of the hedged item. Consequently, a 'hypothetical derivative' cannot be used to include features in the value of the hedged item that only exist in the hedging instrument (but not in the hedged item). An example is debt denominated in a foreign currency (irrespective of whether it is fixed-rate or variable-rate debt). When using a hypothetical derivative to calculate the change in the value of such debt or the present value of the cumulative change in its cash flows, the hypothetical derivative cannot simply impute a charge for exchanging different currencies even though actual derivatives under which different currencies are exchanged might include such a charge (for example, cross-currency interest rate swaps).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

## Conclusions

HealthEquity Inc. Common Stock assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.** We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) with Spearman Correlation ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the HQY stock is predictable in the short/long term.**

**According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes**

### Financial State Forecast for HQY HealthEquity Inc. Common Stock Options & Futures

Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
---|---|---|

Outlook* | B2 | B1 |

Operational Risk | 49 | 84 |

Market Risk | 69 | 54 |

Technical Analysis | 53 | 59 |

Fundamental Analysis | 39 | 43 |

Risk Unsystematic | 64 | 38 |

### Prediction Confidence Score

## References

- E. van der Pol and F. A. Oliehoek. Coordinated deep reinforcement learners for traffic light control. NIPS Workshop on Learning, Inference and Control of Multi-Agent Systems, 2016.
- Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., Tempur Sealy Stock Forecast & Analysis. AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
- L. Panait and S. Luke. Cooperative multi-agent learning: The state of the art. Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems, 11(3):387–434, 2005.
- K. Boda and J. Filar. Time consistent dynamic risk measures. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 63(1):169–186, 2006
- Athey S. 2017. Beyond prediction: using big data for policy problems. Science 355:483–85
- Banerjee, A., J. J. Dolado, J. W. Galbraith, D. F. Hendry (1993), Co-integration, Error-correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-stationary Data. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
- Sutton RS, Barto AG. 1998. Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press

## Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for HQY stock?A: HQY stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Spearman Correlation

Q: Is HQY stock a buy or sell?

A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Wait until speculative trend diminishes HQY Stock.

Q: Is HealthEquity Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?

A: The consensus rating for HealthEquity Inc. Common Stock is Wait until speculative trend diminishes and assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.

Q: What is the consensus rating of HQY stock?

A: The consensus rating for HQY is Wait until speculative trend diminishes.

Q: What is the prediction period for HQY stock?

A: The prediction period for HQY is (n+4 weeks)