AC Investment Research

LON:BIPS INVESCO BOND INCOME PLUS LIMITED Research Report

Outlook: INVESCO BOND INCOME PLUS LIMITED assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 30 Dec 2022 for (n+6 month)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)

Abstract

Prediction of future movement of stock prices has always been a challenging task for the researchers. While the advocates of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) believe that it is impossible to design any predictive framework that can accurately predict the movement of stock prices, there are seminal work in the literature that have clearly demonstrated that the seemingly random movement patterns in the time series of a stock price can be predicted with a high level of accuracy.(O'Connor, N. and Madden, M.G., 2005, December. A neural network approach to predicting stock exchange movements using external factors. In International Conference on Innovative Techniques and Applications of Artificial Intelligence (pp. 64-77). Springer, London.) We evaluate INVESCO BOND INCOME PLUS LIMITED prediction models with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Factor1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:BIPS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

  1. What are the most successful trading algorithms?
  2. What is prediction model?
  3. Reaction Function

LON:BIPS Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider INVESCO BOND INCOME PLUS LIMITED Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:BIPS stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Factor)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:BIPS stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:BIPS Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:BIPS INVESCO BOND INCOME PLUS LIMITED
Time series to forecast n: 30 Dec 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for INVESCO BOND INCOME PLUS LIMITED

  1. An entity that first applies these amendments at the same time it first applies this Standard shall apply paragraphs 7.2.1–7.2.28 instead of paragraphs 7.2.31–7.2.34.
  2. When defining default for the purposes of determining the risk of a default occurring, an entity shall apply a default definition that is consistent with the definition used for internal credit risk management purposes for the relevant financial instrument and consider qualitative indicators (for example, financial covenants) when appropriate. However, there is a rebuttable presumption that default does not occur later than when a financial asset is 90 days past due unless an entity has reasonable and supportable information to demonstrate that a more lagging default criterion is more appropriate. The definition of default used for these purposes shall be applied consistently to all financial instruments unless information becomes available that demonstrates that another default definition is more appropriate for a particular financial instrument.
  3. If an entity previously accounted at cost (in accordance with IAS 39), for an investment in an equity instrument that does not have a quoted price in an active market for an identical instrument (ie a Level 1 input) (or for a derivative asset that is linked to and must be settled by delivery of such an equity instrument) it shall measure that instrument at fair value at the date of initial application. Any difference between the previous carrying amount and the fair value shall be recognised in the opening retained earnings (or other component of equity, as appropriate) of the reporting period that includes the date of initial application.
  4. For the purposes of measuring expected credit losses, the estimate of expected cash shortfalls shall reflect the cash flows expected from collateral and other credit enhancements that are part of the contractual terms and are not recognised separately by the entity. The estimate of expected cash shortfalls on a collateralised financial instrument reflects the amount and timing of cash flows that are expected from foreclosure on the collateral less the costs of obtaining and selling the collateral, irrespective of whether foreclosure is probable (ie the estimate of expected cash flows considers the probability of a foreclosure and the cash flows that would result from it). Consequently, any cash flows that are expected from the realisation of the collateral beyond the contractual maturity of the contract should be included in this analysis. Any collateral obtained as a result of foreclosure is not recognised as an asset that is separate from the collateralised financial instrument unless it meets the relevant recognition criteria for an asset in this or other Standards.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

INVESCO BOND INCOME PLUS LIMITED assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) with Factor1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:BIPS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

LON:BIPS INVESCO BOND INCOME PLUS LIMITED Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBaa2Baa2
Balance SheetBa3Caa2
Leverage RatiosB2Baa2
Cash FlowBaa2Ba3
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBa2Ba3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 89 out of 100 with 506 signals.

References

  1. A. K. Agogino and K. Tumer. Analyzing and visualizing multiagent rewards in dynamic and stochastic environments. Journal of Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems, 17(2):320–338, 2008
  2. Arjovsky M, Bottou L. 2017. Towards principled methods for training generative adversarial networks. arXiv:1701.04862 [stat.ML]
  3. Mikolov T, Yih W, Zweig G. 2013c. Linguistic regularities in continuous space word representations. In Pro- ceedings of the 2013 Conference of the North American Chapter of the Association for Computational Linguistics: Human Language Technologies, pp. 746–51. New York: Assoc. Comput. Linguist.
  4. J. Harb and D. Precup. Investigating recurrence and eligibility traces in deep Q-networks. In Deep Reinforcement Learning Workshop, NIPS 2016, Barcelona, Spain, 2016.
  5. A. Eck, L. Soh, S. Devlin, and D. Kudenko. Potential-based reward shaping for finite horizon online POMDP planning. Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems, 30(3):403–445, 2016
  6. Athey S. 2017. Beyond prediction: using big data for policy problems. Science 355:483–85
  7. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., Is FFBC Stock Buy or Sell?(Stock Forecast). AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:BIPS stock?
A: LON:BIPS stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Factor
Q: Is LON:BIPS stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:BIPS Stock.
Q: Is INVESCO BOND INCOME PLUS LIMITED stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for INVESCO BOND INCOME PLUS LIMITED is Buy and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:BIPS stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:BIPS is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:BIPS stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:BIPS is (n+6 month)

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