AC Investment Research

XFLT^A XAI Octagon Floating Rate & Alternative Income Term Trust 6.50% Series 2026 Term Preferred Shares (Liquidation Preference $25.00) Research Report

Outlook: XAI Octagon Floating Rate & Alternative Income Term Trust 6.50% Series 2026 Term Preferred Shares (Liquidation Preference $25.00) assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : HoldWait until speculative trend diminishes
Time series to forecast n: 30 Dec 2022 for (n+16 weeks)
Methodology : Active Learning (ML)

Abstract

Prediction of the Stock Market is a challenging task in predicting the stock prices in the future. Due to the fluctuating nature of the stock, the stock market is too difficult to predict. Stock prices are constantly changing every day. Estimating of the stock market has a high demand for stock customers. Applying all extracted rules at any time is a major challenge to estimate the future stock price with high accuracy. The latest prediction techniques adopted for the stock market such as Artificial Neural Network, Neuro-Fuzzy System, Time Series Linear Models (TSLM), Recurrent Neural Network (RNN).(Morris, K.J., Egan, S.D., Linsangan, J.L., Leung, C.K., Cuzzocrea, A. and Hoi, C.S., 2018, December. Token-based adaptive time-series prediction by ensembling linear and non-linear estimators: a machine learning approach for predictive analytics on big stock data. In 2018 17th IEEE International Conference on Machine Learning and Applications (ICMLA) (pp. 1486-1491). IEEE.) We evaluate XAI Octagon Floating Rate & Alternative Income Term Trust 6.50% Series 2026 Term Preferred Shares (Liquidation Preference $25.00) prediction models with Active Learning (ML) and Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the XFLT^A stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: HoldWait until speculative trend diminishes

Key Points

  1. Dominated Move
  2. Decision Making
  3. Can neural networks predict stock market?

XFLT^A Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider XAI Octagon Floating Rate & Alternative Income Term Trust 6.50% Series 2026 Term Preferred Shares (Liquidation Preference $25.00) Decision Process with Active Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of XFLT^A stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Lasso Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Active Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) S = s 1 s 2 s 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of XFLT^A stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

XFLT^A Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: XFLT^A XAI Octagon Floating Rate & Alternative Income Term Trust 6.50% Series 2026 Term Preferred Shares (Liquidation Preference $25.00)
Time series to forecast n: 30 Dec 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: HoldWait until speculative trend diminishes

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for XAI Octagon Floating Rate & Alternative Income Term Trust 6.50% Series 2026 Term Preferred Shares (Liquidation Preference $25.00)

  1. For the purpose of this Standard, reasonable and supportable information is that which is reasonably available at the reporting date without undue cost or effort, including information about past events, current conditions and forecasts of future economic conditions. Information that is available for financial reporting purposes is considered to be available without undue cost or effort.
  2. An entity's estimate of expected credit losses on loan commitments shall be consistent with its expectations of drawdowns on that loan commitment, ie it shall consider the expected portion of the loan commitment that will be drawn down within 12 months of the reporting date when estimating 12-month expected credit losses, and the expected portion of the loan commitment that will be drawn down over the expected life of the loan commitment when estimating lifetime expected credit losses.
  3. As noted in paragraph B4.3.1, when an entity becomes a party to a hybrid contract with a host that is not an asset within the scope of this Standard and with one or more embedded derivatives, paragraph 4.3.3 requires the entity to identify any such embedded derivative, assess whether it is required to be separated from the host contract and, for those that are required to be separated, measure the derivatives at fair value at initial recognition and subsequently. These requirements can be more complex, or result in less reliable measures, than measuring the entire instrument at fair value through profit or loss. For that reason this Standard permits the entire hybrid contract to be designated as at fair value through profit or loss.
  4. If there are changes in circumstances that affect hedge effectiveness, an entity may have to change the method for assessing whether a hedging relationship meets the hedge effectiveness requirements in order to ensure that the relevant characteristics of the hedging relationship, including the sources of hedge ineffectiveness, are still captured.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

XAI Octagon Floating Rate & Alternative Income Term Trust 6.50% Series 2026 Term Preferred Shares (Liquidation Preference $25.00) assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. We evaluate the prediction models Active Learning (ML) with Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the XFLT^A stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: HoldWait until speculative trend diminishes

XFLT^A XAI Octagon Floating Rate & Alternative Income Term Trust 6.50% Series 2026 Term Preferred Shares (Liquidation Preference $25.00) Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementCBaa2
Balance SheetBaa2C
Leverage RatiosB2Caa2
Cash FlowBa2Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB2Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 74 out of 100 with 701 signals.

References

  1. D. Bertsekas. Nonlinear programming. Athena Scientific, 1999.
  2. Breiman L. 2001a. Random forests. Mach. Learn. 45:5–32
  3. Zou H, Hastie T. 2005. Regularization and variable selection via the elastic net. J. R. Stat. Soc. B 67:301–20
  4. Artis, M. J. W. Zhang (1990), "BVAR forecasts for the G-7," International Journal of Forecasting, 6, 349–362.
  5. G. Theocharous and A. Hallak. Lifetime value marketing using reinforcement learning. RLDM 2013, page 19, 2013
  6. Chow, G. C. (1960), "Tests of equality between sets of coefficients in two linear regressions," Econometrica, 28, 591–605.
  7. Vilnis L, McCallum A. 2015. Word representations via Gaussian embedding. arXiv:1412.6623 [cs.CL]
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for XFLT^A stock?
A: XFLT^A stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Active Learning (ML) and Lasso Regression
Q: Is XFLT^A stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to HoldWait until speculative trend diminishes XFLT^A Stock.
Q: Is XAI Octagon Floating Rate & Alternative Income Term Trust 6.50% Series 2026 Term Preferred Shares (Liquidation Preference $25.00) stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for XAI Octagon Floating Rate & Alternative Income Term Trust 6.50% Series 2026 Term Preferred Shares (Liquidation Preference $25.00) is HoldWait until speculative trend diminishes and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of XFLT^A stock?
A: The consensus rating for XFLT^A is HoldWait until speculative trend diminishes.
Q: What is the prediction period for XFLT^A stock?
A: The prediction period for XFLT^A is (n+16 weeks)

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