DISTRIBUTION FINANCE CAPITAL HOLDINGS PLC Research Report

## Summary

Prediction of stock prices has been an important area of research for a long time. While supporters of the efficient market hypothesis believe that it is impossible to predict stock prices accurately, there are formal propositions demonstrating that accurate modeling and designing of appropriate variables may lead to models using which stock prices and stock price movement patterns can be very accurately predicted. We evaluate DISTRIBUTION FINANCE CAPITAL HOLDINGS PLC prediction models with Deductive Inference (ML) and Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:DFCH stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:DFCH stock.

## Key Points

1. Short/Long Term Stocks
2. How can neural networks improve predictions?
3. How do predictive algorithms actually work?

## LON:DFCH Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider DISTRIBUTION FINANCE CAPITAL HOLDINGS PLC Decision Process with Deductive Inference (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:DFCH stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Linear Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Deductive Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) $\begin{array}{l}\int {r}^{s}\mathrm{rs}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:DFCH stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## LON:DFCH Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:DFCH DISTRIBUTION FINANCE CAPITAL HOLDINGS PLC
Time series to forecast n: 03 Dec 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:DFCH stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for DISTRIBUTION FINANCE CAPITAL HOLDINGS PLC

1. When a group of items that constitute a net position is designated as a hedged item, an entity shall designate the overall group of items that includes the items that can make up the net position. An entity is not permitted to designate a non-specific abstract amount of a net position. For example, an entity has a group of firm sale commitments in nine months' time for FC100 and a group of firm purchase commitments in 18 months' time for FC120. The entity cannot designate an abstract amount of a net position up to FC20. Instead, it must designate a gross amount of purchases and a gross amount of sales that together give rise to the hedged net position. An entity shall designate gross positions that give rise to the net position so that the entity is able to comply with the requirements for the accounting for qualifying hedging relationships.
2. Conversely, if changes in the extent of offset indicate that the fluctuation is around a hedge ratio that is different from the hedge ratio that is currently used for that hedging relationship, or that there is a trend leading away from that hedge ratio, hedge ineffectiveness can be reduced by adjusting the hedge ratio, whereas retaining the hedge ratio would increasingly produce hedge ineffectiveness. Hence, in such circumstances, an entity must evaluate whether the hedging relationship reflects an imbalance between the weightings of the hedged item and the hedging instrument that would create hedge ineffectiveness (irrespective of whether recognised or not) that could result in an accounting outcome that would be inconsistent with the purpose of hedge accounting. If the hedge ratio is adjusted, it also affects the measurement and recognition of hedge ineffectiveness because, on rebalancing, the hedge ineffectiveness of the hedging relationship must be determined and recognised immediately before adjusting the hedging relationship in accordance with paragraph B6.5.8.
3. If an entity measures a hybrid contract at fair value in accordance with paragraphs 4.1.2A, 4.1.4 or 4.1.5 but the fair value of the hybrid contract had not been measured in comparative reporting periods, the fair value of the hybrid contract in the comparative reporting periods shall be the sum of the fair values of the components (ie the non-derivative host and the embedded derivative) at the end of each comparative reporting period if the entity restates prior periods (see paragraph 7.2.15).
4. A firm commitment to acquire a business in a business combination cannot be a hedged item, except for foreign currency risk, because the other risks being hedged cannot be specifically identified and measured. Those other risks are general business risks.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

## Conclusions

DISTRIBUTION FINANCE CAPITAL HOLDINGS PLC assigned short-term Caa2 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Deductive Inference (ML) with Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:DFCH stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:DFCH stock.

### Financial State Forecast for LON:DFCH DISTRIBUTION FINANCE CAPITAL HOLDINGS PLC Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Caa2Ba2
Operational Risk 3282
Market Risk3289
Technical Analysis3730
Fundamental Analysis3358
Risk Unsystematic4378

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 88 out of 100 with 759 signals.

## References

1. Ruiz FJ, Athey S, Blei DM. 2017. SHOPPER: a probabilistic model of consumer choice with substitutes and complements. arXiv:1711.03560 [stat.ML]
2. E. van der Pol and F. A. Oliehoek. Coordinated deep reinforcement learners for traffic light control. NIPS Workshop on Learning, Inference and Control of Multi-Agent Systems, 2016.
3. M. J. Hausknecht and P. Stone. Deep recurrent Q-learning for partially observable MDPs. CoRR, abs/1507.06527, 2015
4. Bengio Y, Ducharme R, Vincent P, Janvin C. 2003. A neural probabilistic language model. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 3:1137–55
5. Burgess, D. F. (1975), "Duality theory and pitfalls in the specification of technologies," Journal of Econometrics, 3, 105–121.
6. Hartford J, Lewis G, Taddy M. 2016. Counterfactual prediction with deep instrumental variables networks. arXiv:1612.09596 [stat.AP]
7. Bennett J, Lanning S. 2007. The Netflix prize. In Proceedings of KDD Cup and Workshop 2007, p. 35. New York: ACM
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:DFCH stock?
A: LON:DFCH stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Deductive Inference (ML) and Linear Regression
Q: Is LON:DFCH stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:DFCH Stock.
Q: Is DISTRIBUTION FINANCE CAPITAL HOLDINGS PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for DISTRIBUTION FINANCE CAPITAL HOLDINGS PLC is Hold and assigned short-term Caa2 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:DFCH stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:DFCH is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:DFCH stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:DFCH is (n+6 month)