Modelling A.I. in Economics

NAC Nuveen California Quality Municipal Income Fund (Forecast)

Outlook: Nuveen California Quality Municipal Income Fund assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Wait until speculative trend diminishes
Time series to forecast n: 20 Dec 2022 for (n+3 month)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis)

Abstract

Different machine learning algorithms are discussed in this literature review. These algorithms can be used for predicting the stock market. The prediction of the stock market is one of the challenging tasks that must have to be handled. In this paper, it is discussed how the machine learning algorithms can be used for predicting the stock value.(Kumar, I., Dogra, K., Utreja, C. and Yadav, P., 2018, April. A comparative study of supervised machine learning algorithms for stock market trend prediction. In 2018 Second International Conference on Inventive Communication and Computational Technologies (ICICCT) (pp. 1003-1007). IEEE.) We evaluate Nuveen California Quality Municipal Income Fund prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NAC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

Key Points

  1. Dominated Move
  2. What is prediction in deep learning?
  3. What is neural prediction?

NAC Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Nuveen California Quality Municipal Income Fund Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of NAC stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Multiple Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) R = r 1 r 2 r 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of NAC stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

NAC Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: NAC Nuveen California Quality Municipal Income Fund
Time series to forecast n: 20 Dec 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Nuveen California Quality Municipal Income Fund

  1. IFRS 17, issued in May 2017, amended paragraphs 2.1, B2.1, B2.4, B2.5 and B4.1.30, and added paragraph 3.3.5. Amendments to IFRS 17, issued in June 2020, further amended paragraph 2.1 and added paragraphs 7.2.36‒7.2.42. An entity shall apply those amendments when it applies IFRS 17.
  2. An entity shall apply this Standard for annual periods beginning on or after 1 January 2018. Earlier application is permitted. If an entity elects to apply this Standard early, it must disclose that fact and apply all of the requirements in this Standard at the same time (but see also paragraphs 7.1.2, 7.2.21 and 7.3.2). It shall also, at the same time, apply the amendments in Appendix C.
  3. Annual Improvements to IFRS Standards 2018–2020, issued in May 2020, added paragraphs 7.2.35 and B3.3.6A and amended paragraph B3.3.6. An entity shall apply that amendment for annual reporting periods beginning on or after 1 January 2022. Earlier application is permitted. If an entity applies the amendment for an earlier period, it shall disclose that fact.
  4. For floating-rate financial assets and floating-rate financial liabilities, periodic re-estimation of cash flows to reflect the movements in the market rates of interest alters the effective interest rate. If a floating-rate financial asset or a floating-rate financial liability is recognised initially at an amount equal to the principal receivable or payable on maturity, re-estimating the future interest payments normally has no significant effect on the carrying amount of the asset or the liability.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Nuveen California Quality Municipal Income Fund assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) with Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NAC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Wait until speculative trend diminishes

NAC Nuveen California Quality Municipal Income Fund Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementB2C
Balance SheetCCaa2
Leverage RatiosCB3
Cash FlowBaa2Ba1
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCCaa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 87 out of 100 with 817 signals.

References

  1. Z. Wang, T. Schaul, M. Hessel, H. van Hasselt, M. Lanctot, and N. de Freitas. Dueling network architectures for deep reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), pages 1995–2003, 2016.
  2. Chamberlain G. 2000. Econometrics and decision theory. J. Econom. 95:255–83
  3. Vapnik V. 2013. The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory. Berlin: Springer
  4. Meinshausen N. 2007. Relaxed lasso. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 52:374–93
  5. Zou H, Hastie T. 2005. Regularization and variable selection via the elastic net. J. R. Stat. Soc. B 67:301–20
  6. Chernozhukov V, Chetverikov D, Demirer M, Duflo E, Hansen C, Newey W. 2017. Double/debiased/ Neyman machine learning of treatment effects. Am. Econ. Rev. 107:261–65
  7. G. Shani, R. Brafman, and D. Heckerman. An MDP-based recommender system. In Proceedings of the Eigh- teenth conference on Uncertainty in artificial intelligence, pages 453–460. Morgan Kaufmann Publishers Inc., 2002
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for NAC stock?
A: NAC stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is NAC stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Wait until speculative trend diminishes NAC Stock.
Q: Is Nuveen California Quality Municipal Income Fund stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Nuveen California Quality Municipal Income Fund is Wait until speculative trend diminishes and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of NAC stock?
A: The consensus rating for NAC is Wait until speculative trend diminishes.
Q: What is the prediction period for NAC stock?
A: The prediction period for NAC is (n+3 month)

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