Does algo trading work? (NSE IRCTC Stock Forecast)

Stock market prediction is the act of trying to determine the future value of a company stock or other financial instrument traded on a financial exchange. The successful prediction of a stock's future price will maximize investor's gains. This paper proposes a machine learning model to predict stock market price. We evaluate Indian Railway Catering And Tourism Corporation Limited prediction models with Inductive Learning (ML) and Stepwise Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NSE IRCTC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy NSE IRCTC stock.

Keywords: NSE IRCTC, Indian Railway Catering And Tourism Corporation Limited, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. How accurate is machine learning in stock market?
2. Can statistics predict the future?
3. Market Outlook

NSE IRCTC Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) is the cornerstone of the modern financial theory and it states that it is impossible to predict the price of any stock using any trend, fundamental or technical analysis. Stock trading is one of the most important activities in the world of finance. Stock price prediction has been an age-old problem and many researchers from academia and business have tried to solve it using many techniques ranging from basic statistics to machine learning using relevant information such as news sentiment and historical prices. We consider Indian Railway Catering And Tourism Corporation Limited Stock Decision Process with Stepwise Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of NSE IRCTC stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Stepwise Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Inductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(r_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of NSE IRCTC stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

NSE IRCTC Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: NSE IRCTC Indian Railway Catering And Tourism Corporation Limited
Time series to forecast n: 26 Sep 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy NSE IRCTC stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Conclusions

Indian Railway Catering And Tourism Corporation Limited assigned short-term B3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Inductive Learning (ML) with Stepwise Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NSE IRCTC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy NSE IRCTC stock.

Financial State Forecast for NSE IRCTC Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B3	B1
Operational Risk	55	70
Market Risk	32	90
Technical Analysis	50	62
Fundamental Analysis	75	31
Risk Unsystematic	47	34

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 77 out of 100 with 786 signals.

References

1. O. Bardou, N. Frikha, and G. Pag`es. Computing VaR and CVaR using stochastic approximation and adaptive unconstrained importance sampling. Monte Carlo Methods and Applications, 15(3):173–210, 2009.
2. J. Z. Leibo, V. Zambaldi, M. Lanctot, J. Marecki, and T. Graepel. Multi-agent Reinforcement Learning in Sequential Social Dilemmas. In Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems (AAMAS 2017), Sao Paulo, Brazil, 2017
3. E. Altman, K. Avrachenkov, and R. N ́u ̃nez-Queija. Perturbation analysis for denumerable Markov chains with application to queueing models. Advances in Applied Probability, pages 839–853, 2004
4. Breiman L. 1993. Better subset selection using the non-negative garotte. Tech. Rep., Univ. Calif., Berkeley
5. Kallus N. 2017. Balanced policy evaluation and learning. arXiv:1705.07384 [stat.ML]
6. Bessler, D. A. S. W. Fuller (1993), "Cointegration between U.S. wheat markets," Journal of Regional Science, 33, 481–501.
7. Hornik K, Stinchcombe M, White H. 1989. Multilayer feedforward networks are universal approximators. Neural Netw. 2:359–66

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for NSE IRCTC stock?
A: NSE IRCTC stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Inductive Learning (ML) and Stepwise Regression
Q: Is NSE IRCTC stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy NSE IRCTC Stock.
Q: Is Indian Railway Catering And Tourism Corporation Limited stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Indian Railway Catering And Tourism Corporation Limited is Buy and assigned short-term B3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of NSE IRCTC stock?
A: The consensus rating for NSE IRCTC is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for NSE IRCTC stock?
A: The prediction period for NSE IRCTC is (n+3 month)

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