## Abstract

**We evaluate Dow prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Sign Test ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the DOW stock is predictable in the short/long term. **

**According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell DOW stock.**

**DOW, Dow, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.**

*Keywords:*## Key Points

- What is the use of Markov decision process?
- What are the most successful trading algorithms?
- What is a prediction confidence?

## DOW Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Dow Stock Decision Process with Sign Test where A is the set of discrete actions of DOW stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^{1,2,3,4}

F(Sign Test)

^{5,6,7}= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& {p}_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) $\sum _{i=1}^{n}\left({s}_{i}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of DOW stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## DOW Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

**Sample Set:**Neural Network

**Stock/Index:**DOW Dow

**Time series to forecast n: 02 Sep 2022**for (n+16 weeks)

**According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell DOW stock.**

**X axis: *Likelihood%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

**Y axis: *Potential Impact%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

**Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%**

## Conclusions

Dow assigned short-term B2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.** We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) with Sign Test ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the DOW stock is predictable in the short/long term.**

**According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell DOW stock.**

### Financial State Forecast for DOW Stock Options & Futures

Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
---|---|---|

Outlook* | B2 | B2 |

Operational Risk | 33 | 47 |

Market Risk | 33 | 48 |

Technical Analysis | 88 | 86 |

Fundamental Analysis | 51 | 32 |

Risk Unsystematic | 61 | 40 |

### Prediction Confidence Score

## References

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- G. Konidaris, S. Osentoski, and P. Thomas. Value function approximation in reinforcement learning using the Fourier basis. In AAAI, 2011
- Dietterich TG. 2000. Ensemble methods in machine learning. In Multiple Classifier Systems: First International Workshop, Cagliari, Italy, June 21–23, pp. 1–15. Berlin: Springer
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- J. Ott. A Markov decision model for a surveillance application and risk-sensitive Markov decision processes. PhD thesis, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, 2010.
- Athey S, Tibshirani J, Wager S. 2016b. Generalized random forests. arXiv:1610.01271 [stat.ME]

## Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for DOW stock?A: DOW stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Sign Test

Q: Is DOW stock a buy or sell?

A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell DOW Stock.

Q: Is Dow stock a good investment?

A: The consensus rating for Dow is Sell and assigned short-term B2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.

Q: What is the consensus rating of DOW stock?

A: The consensus rating for DOW is Sell.

Q: What is the prediction period for DOW stock?

A: The prediction period for DOW is (n+16 weeks)