Is DOW Stock Expected to Go Up? (Stock Forecast)


Abstract

We evaluate Dow prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Sign Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the DOW stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell DOW stock.


Keywords: DOW, Dow, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. What is the use of Markov decision process?
  2. What are the most successful trading algorithms?
  3. What is a prediction confidence?

DOW Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Dow Stock Decision Process with Sign Test where A is the set of discrete actions of DOW stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Sign Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of DOW stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

DOW Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: DOW Dow
Time series to forecast n: 02 Sep 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell DOW stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

Dow assigned short-term B2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) with Sign Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the DOW stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell DOW stock.

Financial State Forecast for DOW Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2B2
Operational Risk 3347
Market Risk3348
Technical Analysis8886
Fundamental Analysis5132
Risk Unsystematic6140

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 76 out of 100 with 571 signals.

References

  1. Athey S, Imbens GW. 2017b. The state of applied econometrics: causality and policy evaluation. J. Econ. Perspect. 31:3–32
  2. Candès EJ, Recht B. 2009. Exact matrix completion via convex optimization. Found. Comput. Math. 9:717
  3. G. Konidaris, S. Osentoski, and P. Thomas. Value function approximation in reinforcement learning using the Fourier basis. In AAAI, 2011
  4. Dietterich TG. 2000. Ensemble methods in machine learning. In Multiple Classifier Systems: First International Workshop, Cagliari, Italy, June 21–23, pp. 1–15. Berlin: Springer
  5. Athey S, Wager S. 2017. Efficient policy learning. arXiv:1702.02896 [math.ST]
  6. J. Ott. A Markov decision model for a surveillance application and risk-sensitive Markov decision processes. PhD thesis, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, 2010.
  7. Athey S, Tibshirani J, Wager S. 2016b. Generalized random forests. arXiv:1610.01271 [stat.ME]
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for DOW stock?
A: DOW stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Sign Test
Q: Is DOW stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell DOW Stock.
Q: Is Dow stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Dow is Sell and assigned short-term B2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of DOW stock?
A: The consensus rating for DOW is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for DOW stock?
A: The prediction period for DOW is (n+16 weeks)

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