Is UGI Stock Expected to Go Up? (Stock Forecast)


Abstract

We evaluate UGI Corp prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the UGI stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold UGI stock.


Keywords: UGI, UGI Corp, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Fundemental Analysis with Algorithmic Trading
  2. Is it better to buy and sell or hold?
  3. What statistical methods are used to analyze data?

UGI Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider UGI Corp Stock Decision Process with Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test where A is the set of discrete actions of UGI stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of UGI stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

UGI Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: UGI UGI Corp
Time series to forecast n: 04 Sep 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold UGI stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%


Conclusions

UGI Corp assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) with Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the UGI stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold UGI stock.

Financial State Forecast for UGI Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2Ba2
Operational Risk 3285
Market Risk7787
Technical Analysis6475
Fundamental Analysis4549
Risk Unsystematic4848

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 75 out of 100 with 563 signals.

References

  1. M. Ono, M. Pavone, Y. Kuwata, and J. Balaram. Chance-constrained dynamic programming with application to risk-aware robotic space exploration. Autonomous Robots, 39(4):555–571, 2015
  2. Jiang N, Li L. 2016. Doubly robust off-policy value evaluation for reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the 33rd International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 652–61. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
  3. Mikolov T, Sutskever I, Chen K, Corrado GS, Dean J. 2013b. Distributed representations of words and phrases and their compositionality. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 26, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 3111–19. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
  4. Rosenbaum PR, Rubin DB. 1983. The central role of the propensity score in observational studies for causal effects. Biometrika 70:41–55
  5. Bessler, D. A. T. Covey (1991), "Cointegration: Some results on U.S. cattle prices," Journal of Futures Markets, 11, 461–474.
  6. Clements, M. P. D. F. Hendry (1996), "Intercept corrections and structural change," Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11, 475–494.
  7. Morris CN. 1983. Parametric empirical Bayes inference: theory and applications. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 78:47–55
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for UGI stock?
A: UGI stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test
Q: Is UGI stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold UGI Stock.
Q: Is UGI Corp stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for UGI Corp is Hold and assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of UGI stock?
A: The consensus rating for UGI is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for UGI stock?
A: The prediction period for UGI is (n+4 weeks)

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