Modelling A.I. in Economics

FWBI First Wave BioPharma Inc. Common Stock (Forecast)

Outlook: First Wave BioPharma Inc. Common Stock assigned short-term B3 & long-term Ba1 forecasted stock rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 16 Dec 2022 for (n+8 weeks)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis)

Abstract

The stock market is one of the key sectors of a country's economy. It provides investors with an opportunity to invest and gain returns on their investment. Predicting the stock market is a very challenging task and has attracted serious interest from researchers from many fields such as statistics, artificial intelligence, economics, and finance. An accurate prediction of the stock market reduces investment risk in the market. Different approaches have been used to predict the stock market. The performances of Machine learning (ML) models are typically superior to those of statistical and econometric models. (Huynh, H.D., Dang, L.M. and Duong, D., 2017, December. A new model for stock price movements prediction using deep neural network. In Proceedings of the Eighth International Symposium on Information and Communication Technology (pp. 57-62).) We evaluate First Wave BioPharma Inc. Common Stock prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the FWBI stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

  1. What is neural prediction?
  2. What is neural prediction?
  3. Probability Distribution

FWBI Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider First Wave BioPharma Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of FWBI stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) i = 1 n r i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of FWBI stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

FWBI Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: FWBI First Wave BioPharma Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 16 Dec 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for First Wave BioPharma Inc. Common Stock

  1. An entity shall assess separately whether each subgroup meets the requirements in paragraph 6.6.1 to be an eligible hedged item. If any subgroup fails to meet the requirements in paragraph 6.6.1, the entity shall discontinue hedge accounting prospectively for the hedging relationship in its entirety. An entity also shall apply the requirements in paragraphs 6.5.8 and 6.5.11 to account for ineffectiveness related to the hedging relationship in its entirety.
  2. Although the objective of an entity's business model may be to hold financial assets in order to collect contractual cash flows, the entity need not hold all of those instruments until maturity. Thus an entity's business model can be to hold financial assets to collect contractual cash flows even when sales of financial assets occur or are expected to occur in the future.
  3. Because the hedge accounting model is based on a general notion of offset between gains and losses on the hedging instrument and the hedged item, hedge effectiveness is determined not only by the economic relationship between those items (ie the changes in their underlyings) but also by the effect of credit risk on the value of both the hedging instrument and the hedged item. The effect of credit risk means that even if there is an economic relationship between the hedging instrument and the hedged item, the level of offset might become erratic. This can result from a change in the credit risk of either the hedging instrument or the hedged item that is of such a magnitude that the credit risk dominates the value changes that result from the economic relationship (ie the effect of the changes in the underlyings). A level of magnitude that gives rise to dominance is one that would result in the loss (or gain) from credit risk frustrating the effect of changes in the underlyings on the value of the hedging instrument or the hedged item, even if those changes were significant.
  4. In cases such as those described in the preceding paragraph, to designate, at initial recognition, the financial assets and financial liabilities not otherwise so measured as at fair value through profit or loss may eliminate or significantly reduce the measurement or recognition inconsistency and produce more relevant information. For practical purposes, the entity need not enter into all of the assets and liabilities giving rise to the measurement or recognition inconsistency at exactly the same time. A reasonable delay is permitted provided that each transaction is designated as at fair value through profit or loss at its initial recognition and, at that time, any remaining transactions are expected to occur.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

First Wave BioPharma Inc. Common Stock assigned short-term B3 & long-term Ba1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) with Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the FWBI stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Financial State Forecast for FWBI First Wave BioPharma Inc. Common Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B3Ba1
Operational Risk 5073
Market Risk4665
Technical Analysis4379
Fundamental Analysis4082
Risk Unsystematic5353

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 73 out of 100 with 496 signals.

References

  1. K. Boda and J. Filar. Time consistent dynamic risk measures. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 63(1):169–186, 2006
  2. Bamler R, Mandt S. 2017. Dynamic word embeddings via skip-gram filtering. In Proceedings of the 34th Inter- national Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 380–89. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
  3. Hoerl AE, Kennard RW. 1970. Ridge regression: biased estimation for nonorthogonal problems. Technometrics 12:55–67
  4. M. Benaim, J. Hofbauer, and S. Sorin. Stochastic approximations and differential inclusions, Part II: Appli- cations. Mathematics of Operations Research, 31(4):673–695, 2006
  5. Barkan O. 2016. Bayesian neural word embedding. arXiv:1603.06571 [math.ST]
  6. Bera, A. M. L. Higgins (1997), "ARCH and bilinearity as competing models for nonlinear dependence," Journal of Business Economic Statistics, 15, 43–50.
  7. Firth JR. 1957. A synopsis of linguistic theory 1930–1955. In Studies in Linguistic Analysis (Special Volume of the Philological Society), ed. JR Firth, pp. 1–32. Oxford, UK: Blackwell
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for FWBI stock?
A: FWBI stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test
Q: Is FWBI stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy FWBI Stock.
Q: Is First Wave BioPharma Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for First Wave BioPharma Inc. Common Stock is Buy and assigned short-term B3 & long-term Ba1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of FWBI stock?
A: The consensus rating for FWBI is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for FWBI stock?
A: The prediction period for FWBI is (n+8 weeks)

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